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    • Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Sit Decisions: Brian Robinson Jr. on the rise
    Tennessee

    Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Sit Decisions: Brian Robinson Jr. on the rise

    Eira Gwyneth Posted on

    quarterback

    Start: Jayden Daniels, Commander

    We all saw what Daniels did on Monday. Most people start doing this without needing anyone on the internet to tell them to do it. I simply can’t emphasize enough that there are about four quarterbacks on the planet who are going for more fantasy points than him. Daniels leads the NFL in scrambles (17) and yards on scrambles (138). As a passer, the rookie is in the top five in the EPA per play and yards per attempt. RotoPat has him at QB5 in their weekly ranks and I could move it up a spot or two.

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    Starting: Caleb Williams, Bears

    Williams began to find his rhythm in Week 3, throwing for 363 yards and two scores against the Colts, albeit with two more interceptions. He easily set a season high in yards per attempt (7.0) and also set a high mark in PFF passing grade (57.7). While Williams couldn’t iron out all of his mistakes, he proved he was capable of driving the ball down the field and making big gains. He’s facing an LA defense this week that ranks 31st in EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

    Sitting: Matthew Stafford, Rams

    On the other side of the Chicago game, things aren’t going so well for Stafford. The Rams lost Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp before their Week 3 matchup against the 49ers. Their success rate went from -2% above expectations in the first two games to -10% in Week 3.

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    Stafford threw for 221 yards and scored on 25 attempts. The Bears rank third in EPA per dropback allowed and Vegas agrees on the difficulty of this matchup. The LA team’s total score of 18.75 points is the same as that of Miami, who already have their third quarterback of the year.

    Seated: Anthony Richardson, Colts

    Richardson ranks 26th in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt (5.1), although he leads the league with five passes over 40 yards. He ranks 25th in total pass attempts as head coach Shane Steichen has relied on the Colts’ ground game most weeks. Indy has a success rate of -10% above expectations. That hasn’t translated to elite rushing volume yet with Richardson averaging six runs per game, the same number as Bo Nix. Don’t expect either team to give us a lot of fantasy points when we face a Steelers team that also wants to play a run-heavy, bar-fighting style of football.

    Run back

    Start: Zack Moss, Bengals

    The Bengals are 4.5 point favorites over the Panthers. Carolina’s defense ranks 25th in EPA per rush attempt and has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Moss dominated Cincinnati’s backfield for three weeks. He has a carry percentage of 64 percent and is also the Bengals’ best option on passing downs, running a route on 59 percent of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks. In a great spot, Cincinnati’s RB1 looks like a fantasy RB2.

    Start: Brian Robinson Jr., commander

    Robinson ranks seventh in yards after contact per carry and ninth in rush yards over expected per attempt. He also averages a respectable 1.2 yards per route run and PFF ranked him as the No. 8 running back in pass blocking. The Commanders have already ruled out Austin Ekeler for their Week 4 shootout against the Cardinals. Robinson should sit at the top of the RB2 ranks and have the backfield all to himself.

    Sitting: Cam Akers, Texans

    We got away with it by putting Akers on the “starting” list last week. He saved his dream day with a receiving touchdown, but didn’t play a full-time role. He was on the field one more snap than Dare Ogunbowale and ran a route on a quarter of CJ Stroud’s dropbacks. This came in the context of a blowout loss to the Vikings, but it also means Akers has a narrow path to fantasy points. That’s true on the floor, where he ranks outside the top 30 defenders in PFF rushing grade and yards after contact per carry. I’m avoiding this backfield until Joe Mixon gets back.

    Sitting: Javonte Williams, Broncos

    Williams ranks second to last in rush yards over expected per carry. PFF has him with the lowest rushing grade among 54 qualified running backs. Sean Payton gave practice squad defensive back Tyler Badie a chance to finish things off in Week 3, and he ran for 70 yards on nine attempts. The Broncos immediately added Badie to their active roster in the following days. Williams has concerns about efficiency, and now questions about volume are emerging.

    Wide receiver

    Start: Tee Higgins, Bengals

    The Bengals didn’t rush Higgins back and were able to use him in a full-time role once he returned to action. Higgins ran a route on 95 percent of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks in Week 3. He scored six targets, three of which accounted for 67 percent of the team’s end zone targets. Cincinnati lost to the Commanders but dropped 33 points in a shootout and Vegas believes their offense is back in form. They have a total score of 25.75 in a game, the second highest total of the week.

    Start: Chris Olave, Saints

    We go back to the well on Olave. He ranks ninth in yards per route run and holds PFF’s best receiving grade through three weeks. Although the Saints suffered a speed bump in Week 3, they still rank third in the NFL in EPA per pass play and are second in total points. Olave remains a top-15 fantasy option in Week 4.

    Seated: Michael Pittman, Colts

    Pittman makes the “Sit” list for the second year in a row. Anthony Richardson needs to show some signs of life as a passer before Pittman can return to our fantasy lineups. Richardson ranks 28th in intermediate throws and last in short throws. Pittman, on the other hand, hit 84.2 percent of his goals on short and medium attempts. A game with a total score of 40 doesn’t seem like the right place for Pittman.

    Seated: Quentin Johnston, Chargers

    It comes as no surprise to anyone that the Chargers are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league.

    They will start against Kansas City with either the injured Justin Herbert or substitute Taylor Heinicke. No matter who takes the first snap at quarterback, it’s safe to assume they’ll be moving deeper into the establishment this week. The Chargers will also likely bring back Joshua Palmer after a one-game absence. With sportsbooks projecting the Chargers to score third-fewest, Johnston’s role as this team’s touchdown scorer is likely to be negated against Kansas City.

    Tight end

    Start: Zach Ertz, Commander

    Ertz has the ninth-highest route share among tight ends and his 19 percent target share ranks 11th at the position. He has a surprisingly respectable aDOT of 8.4, which puts him in the top five in air yards on his team. Ertz’s 1.56 yards per route run is his best mark since 2019. This is the best football Ertz has played in a long time, and his team is heading into one of the few high-scoring games in Week 4.

    Starting: Brenton Strange, Jaguars

    Strange took over the starting position in Jacksonville two weeks ago after Evan Engram suffered a hamstring injury during pregame warmups. He ran a route on 72 percent of the Jags’ dropbacks in Week 2. That number dropped last week, but the Jags gave their starters a timeout in the fourth quarter after the Bills thoroughly buried them. He was on the field on 72 percent of their passing plays through three quarters. Strange converted a 17 percent target share into five grabs for 77 yards and a score. With Engram likely to miss Week 4 as well, Strange remains a TE2 with high upside.

    Sitting: Isaiah Likely, Ravens

    He probably turned back into a pumpkin after his explosion in Week 1. He has completed a route on 52 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks over the last two weeks and has a target share of nine percent. It won’t surprise me to see his role increase at some point, but predicting when that will happen is foolishness, and the base volume isn’t enough to be confident in that.

    Seated: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers

    There’s almost nothing wrong with Freiermuth’s role. He ranks in the top 10 in target and route share among tight ends. The problem that makes all of his strong market share numbers irrelevant is the same problem that plagued players like Drake London and Kyle Pitts last year. The Steelers, now under OC Arthur Smith, don’t throw the football. With a success rate of -9% above expectations, they are in the bottom five places in the NFL. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in total pass attempts and 29th in neutral site speed.

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    Eira Gwyneth
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