The San Diego Padres (91-68) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71) begin a three-game series on Friday at Chase Field in Phoenix. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s 24/7 MLB odds Padres vs. Diamondbacks Opportunities and meet our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: 5:5 draw

The Padres lost the last two games in a three-game set against the Dodgers in Los Angeles after winning the series opener 4-2 on Tuesday. San Diego lost 7-2 on Thursday as slight underdogs (-106) while conceding to the over (8.5). This halted an 8-0-1 run against the Under on September 15th.

The Diamondbacks stopped a three-game losing streak with an 8-2 win over the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday as heavy favorites (-256) while conceding the over (9). Overall, the D-Backs are on a 3-0-1 run.

These teams have not met since July 5 and 7 in San Diego, when Arizona played two of three games at Petco Park. The Over cashed in all three meetings in this series, with the Snakes averaging 8.0 runs per game (RPG) and the Padres averaging 5.3 RPG.

The last time these teams met in Phoenix was on May 3rd and 5th, with the Padres winning two of three games. The Over also won two of those three games. The Over is on a 6-0 run and has scored 8 of the last 9 goals in the series.

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs RHP Merrill Kelly

Darvish (6-3, 3.18 ERA) is making his 16th start. He has a WHIP of 1.06, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 76 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (2 solo HR), 0 BB, 9 K in a 4-2 home win over the Chicago White Sox on Sunday
• 2024 road breakdown: 3-0, 2.05 ERA, 22 IP, 5 ER, 16 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 21 K, .203 opponents batting average (OBA), 0.91 WHIP in 4 starts
• Last 7 games: 3-2, 4.04 ERA, 35 2/3 IP, 16 ER, 34 H, 7 BB, 37 K, 1.15 WHIP
• Career vs. Diamondbacks: 8-4, 3.55 ERA, 101 1/3 IP, 40 ER, 85 H, 15 HR, 35 BB, 131 K, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 18 starts

Kelly (5-0, 3.71 ERA) is making his 13th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 68 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in a 5-0 road win over the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday
• 2024 home division: 2-0, 3.55 ERA, 33 IP, 13 ER, 7 HR, 8 BB, 23 K, .228 OBA, 1.09 WHIP in 6 starts
• Last 7 games: 2-0, 4.70 ERA, 38 1/3 IP, 20 ER, 10 BB, 32 K, 1.28 WHIP
• Career vs. Padres: 9-3, 3.05 ERA, 82 2/3 IP, 28 ER, 11 HR, 31 BB, 78 K, 1.19 WHIP in 15 starts

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Padres at Diamondbacks odds

Powered by BetMGM Sportsbook; Visit the USA TODAY sports scores and sports betting hub for a complete list of MLB odds. Lines were last updated at 8:56 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Diamondbacks -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Diamondback -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Padres vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions

forecast

Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3

Money line

The PADRES (+105) are a solid road dog behind veteran Darvish as they look to end a two-game losing streak and build some momentum ahead of the postseason.

The Diamondbacks (-125) aren’t playing as well because of Kelly. Despite being undefeated in five decisions this season, he was ruled out of his last start due to cramps. It is uncertain how long he can last and how effective he will be.

Running Line/Against the Spread

The Padres +1.5 (-200) are a bit too expensive for a single bet if you want to hedge your bets. However, as part of a multi-leg parlay, using them isn’t the end of the world.

The Padres have won Darvish’s last four starts since his return from injury, so they’re a much better game right off the bat.

HAPPEN.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-115) is a solid play in a game that should have a playoff feel. The Padres are already in the postseason field and the Diamondbacks are a strong bet to secure one of the other Wild Card spots.

While the under team won six meetings in a row, these teams have not faced each other since the beginning of July, so this can be dismissed. More importantly, the under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 games for the Padres.

And while the Diamondbacks are 3-0-1 in their last four games, the Under is 3-1 in Kelly’s last four games.

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