For many people, this season is more of a rebuild for the Atlanta Hawks. At least her swapped away their second-best player, Dejounte Murray, to the New Orleans Pelicans and acknowledged that their decision to bring him aboard was a misstep.

But these individuals are making a fatal mistake: they are prioritizing star counting over proper roster construction. What appears to be a less talented team is actually a more balanced and diverse unit. One that could sneak up on some teams in the Eastern Conference.

Addition by subtraction

Last season, Trae Young missed 23 games from late February to early April. During this stretch, the Hawks posted a 12-11 record (43 wins in an 82-game season), which is much better than the other 59 games (24-35, 34 wins). During this timeI’ve written about how this period of time was evidence not that the Hawks were better without Young, but rather that Murray and Young were not intended for this Be a backcourt partner.

According to PBP Stats, Young and Murray posted a net rating of -5.71 in the 1,172 minutes they played together in 2023-24. For reference, every other “star” duo in the league had a positive net rating in their protocols.

Another advantage to their chemistry is that none of the Hawks’ top-five lineups had both des Guards on the floor at the same time.

2023-24 Atlanta Hawks Top 5 Lineups*

*Data provided by cleaning the glass

Now that Murray is gone, the Hawks no longer have to worry about the subpar fit between the two. They also had the better player in the end (Young’s offense is far superior and Murray’s defense is no longer good enough to make up the difference).

Lineups that make sense

In basketball, You can only bring five people onto the court at a time. To win you need this five men group too Have a mix of On-ball creationSpacing, rim pressure, perimeter defense, off-ball defense and rim protection. At this point, Muray aAnd Young really just provided the creation on the ball. So it was up to the other three players on the field to fill those gaps, and there are very few teams with three players role player Who can wear all these hats (note: the Hawks were not one of them).

Now the Hawks have an extra spot in their lineup, making it much more likely that they can check all the necessary boxes. And even though they didn’t Top staff, they Do I have the pieces for it compiled some fairly balanced lineups. Here is an example of what they can do.

Hypothetical Lineup: Trae Young (PG)/Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG)/Dyson Daniels (SF)/Jalen Johnson (PF)/Clint Capela (C)

We already know that, Young is very stable an oAttack and being the main decision maker of a team. Bogdan Bogdanovic provides secondary creation, spacing and off-ball defense. Dyson Daniels gives you perimeter defense, off-ball defense, and secondary rim protection (and hopefully some spacing soon). Jalen Johnson is just one He’s an absolute monster, and when he develops properly he gives you all six of these things to varying degrees. And finally, Clint Capela offers you rim pressure (as rollover protection) and rim protection.

This is just one possible setup variant. Onyeka Okongwu is basically a younger version of Capela. So he can step in there and take on the same role whenever they need him. If the Hawks want to go with a small ball center, they now have Larry Nance Jr. thanks to the Murray deal. If they want If there are more shots/spacing, Zaccharie Risacher, Garrison Matthews or Vit Krejci can step in for Daniels. De’Andre Hunter is still a solid three-and-D winger/forward. We haven’t mentioned the soon-to-be sophomore yet Combo protection Kobe Bufkin. This team is sneaky deep.

Youth in abundance

In addition to their strength and the balance/versatility of their lineup, the Hawks have a lot of young players. And in general, the more young players you have, the greater the chances that one (or more) of them will take a big step forward.

Of the 12 players we mentioned above, six are under 25 years old.* That doesn’t include Young, who recently celebrated his 26th birthday (September 19).

(*Sidebar #1: We’re not even taking into account Nikola Djurisic (20), the Hawks’ 2024 second-round pick, who will miss the first part of the season with a foot injury.)

Johnson is the most likely candidate to make a big move up the player hierarchy next season. He finished last season 98th percentile in DELTA (an Opta Analyst metric that tracks a player’s improvement over time of the season). And given his player profile (he’s a great athlete with size and ball skills), there’s hope he still has hope a lot more room to grow.

Daniels, 21, was eliminated from the playoff rotation for the Pelicans because of his outside shooting (31.1% 3-point range). But he is a phenomenal defender (88th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus). So if he can master that jumper (there’s still a chance given his age), he could develop into one of the better role players in the league.

Dyson Daniels is set to have a breakout season in Atlanta

Excellent PoA defender who gradually improved in his offensive game. He will use Trae Young defensively as a 2-guard. He has gained weight in recent years and improved his rim finish: 59.8 season; will rise to 65% this year pic.twitter.com/yKc799VSeM

— Ersin Demir (@EDemirNBA) September 16, 2024

Bufkin, 21, didn’t play much last year (196 minutes total), but he showed some promise serious Promise at Michigan, particularly as an on-ball creator. In his second season, Bufkin ranked in the 72nd percentile in pick-and-roll ballhandling efficiency and the 84th percentile in isolation (per Synergy Sports). He and Bogdanovic can take over the offense when Young is on the bench. And thanks to his position size (6’8 wingspan), the Hawks should be able to survive on defense if he shares the spot with Young.

Risacher (19), the Hawks’ first pick, doesn’t have the most potential (many people compare him to other players). like Michael Porter Jr.). But he’s still a big one Old (6’9’5 wingspan) who can shoot (Risacher hit 40.7% of his 209 threes in international play), which will get you pretty far in the NBA.

As we said, Okongwu (24) is a younger Capela, meaning the Hawks could theoretically move Capela to build strength elsewhere. And Krejci (also 24) is a solid three-and-D winger/forward on one Good Contract (4 years, 10.2 million, per Spotrac).

The conclusion

Listen, I’m not saying the Hawks are any title contenders. You may have a balanced lineup now, but you need a balanced lineup And Talent to win big in this league. The Hawks are still a player or two away from reaching the required threshold in this area.*

(*Sidebar #2: In today’s game, good lineup balance is better than just pure talent.)

But it’s still the Eastern Conference we’re talking about. The Washington Wizards, Detroit Pistons and Brooklyn Nets will do nothing. And most likely not the Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors or Charlotte Hornets either. By this calculation, the Hawks are already one of the top 9 teams in the East. This is already better than last year (they were tenth).

But what happens if some of the teams in front of them suffer injuries or perform worse? Could the Hawks clinch a spot in the top six?

I don’t think this outcome is outside the realm of possibility, and that alone makes the Hawks better in 2024-25 than anyone gives them credit for.