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    • College Football Playoff Bracket Projection: SEC Teams Under Pressure
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    College Football Playoff Bracket Projection: SEC Teams Under Pressure

    Eira Gwyneth Posted on

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    Someone from the SEC is getting pushed out of the College Football Playoff.

    Probably. Perhaps? While adding three teams to the 12-team field seems certain and landing four seems fairly likely, there will be a fifth team from this power conference that leaves a playoff fall outside the postseason.

    Mathematically, there is a plausible scenario in which these five SEC front-runners post double-digit wins during the regular season:

    • Georgia goes 12-1, loses once in the regular season, but wins the conference championship;
    • Texas goes 11-2, its second loss coming against Georgia in Atlanta at the beginning of December;
    • Alabama finishes 10-2, with both losses coming in two of four games – against Georgia and Missouri at home and Tennessee and LSU on the road;
    • And both Tennessee and Mississippi are 10-2, which may understate the potential of these two rivals.

    Assuming the top four in the SEC make the playoffs, whether that fifth team gets an overall bid will depend on how the selection committee views the runners-up in the Big 12 and the ACC. Would the committee be willing to overlook a team that reached its conference title game in favor of a team that finished fifth in its league?

    Currently, USA TODAY Sports’ updated playoff bracketology has four players from the SEC, leaving the Rebels as the first team off the field.

    College Football Playoff Field Bracket Projection

    The biggest change from last week’s standings involves a shakeup at the top of the Big 12.

    Kansas State was No. 4 a week ago but was replaced by Utah. The Wildcats suffered an epic collapse late Saturday night at Brigham Young, ultimately losing 38-9, while the Utes held off Oklahoma State and quarterback Cam Rising was again sidelined by injury.

    This road loss leaves Kansas State completely out of the field. The league’s second team is Iowa State, which is now ranked 19th in the US LBM Coaches’ Poll after wins against North Dakota, Iowa and Arkansas State.

    The Cyclones’ chances hinge on three key games: Central Florida at home on Oct. 19, Utah on the road on Nov. 23 and the Wildcats back in Ames on Nov. 30 to end the regular season. If they win two of three, ISU would have a chance to reach the conference championship game, but only if it avoids the kind of unexpected pitfall that befell Kansas State last weekend.

    The first four teams are eliminated

    Mississippi

    It seems ridiculous to leave out the Rebels considering how well they played in three games, albeit against weak competition: Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern. The big problem is a schedule that may not be doing Ole Miss any favors. While Lane Kiffin’s squad can clinch a playoff spot with a home win against Georgia on Nov. 9, the games against LSU and Oklahoma are suddenly less impressive given how both teams fought out of the gate. These are currently the only ranked teams on the Rebels schedule.

    Missouri

    The selection committee could ignore the fact that Missouri needed double overtime to beat Vanderbilt. But the Tigers only face one of the SEC’s current top five — Alabama — on Nov. 26 and will need to pick up style points to overcome this weaker strength of schedule. Home games last week against the Commodores and last Saturday against Boston College do not bode well as they prepare to face Texas A&M for the first time on October 5th.

    Michigan

    Michigan climbs the Big Ten rankings after defeating Southern California. However, there are still many concerns, none greater than the quarterback’s lack of production and the resulting lack of offensive balance. Alex Orji threw for just 32 yards in his first start. Tougher road defenses are coming, and it’s hard to imagine the Wolverines thriving with drastic improvements.

    Notre Dame

    Notre Dame played well defensively in a 28-3 win over Miami (Ohio). But the Fighting Irish are hurting from Northern Illinois’ overtime loss to Buffalo. A win this week against Louisville is a must. Additionally, Texas A&M needs to be among the SEC’s top teams to confirm this road win, and Southern California needs to do the same in the Big Ten by facing the Trojans in its final game.

    Four teams to watch

    Brigham Young

    In addition to Saturday’s eye-opening result against Kansas State, the Cougars picked up a nice non-conference win against SMU. Improvements on both sides mean BYU is in the playoff mix. They just need to avoid climbing too high before the toughest part of their schedule comes in the second half of the season.

    Illinois

    After last Friday’s win at Nebraska, Illinois is headed in the right direction as it faces Penn State in another important Big Ten road game this Saturday. A loss to the Nittany Lions would be huge, giving the Illini two big road wins and some margin for error in games against Michigan and Oregon in October.

    Boise State

    Memphis’ loss at Navy opened the Group of Five race. James Madison gets the nod this week after dropping 70 points against North Carolina, but the Broncos could become the team to beat with a win this weekend against Washington State. Their three-point loss at Oregon in Week 2 could end up being one of the better results for the Group of Five teams.

    Washington state

    And speaking of the Cougars, after last week’s thrilling win over San Jose State, Washington State is the only team in the Bowl Subdivision with three wins against opponents that currently have a winning record – two of those wins came against Power-Fours -Opponent scored. The Cougars are doing what they have to do to overcome the lack of true conference affiliation. The downside is that they are fighting with other big teams to get into the field.

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    Eira Gwyneth
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