The impacts of Hurricane Helene will primarily affect the eastern half of Alabama over the next 24 hours. This afternoon and tonight, eastern Alabama will see heavier rain, heavy at times. The western half of the state will remain mostly dry, with just a few isolated showers. Winds will increase in eastern Alabama tonight, with gusts up to 40/45 mph possible. The higher wind speeds will be felt to the east over Georgia.

In eastern Alabama, the rain will end very early tomorrow, and most of Alabama will be dry tomorrow, with the exception of the Tennessee Valley, where rain may continue into tomorrow night thanks to the remnant circulation from Helene being absorbed by a low pressure system aloft.

WEEKEND IN ALABAMA: Weather looks generally dry this weekend, with highs between 77 and 80 degrees in most communities. Possible rain showers are expected to be isolated and near the Tennessee border.

And next week looks dry, with highs of around 27 degrees on most days.

HELENE: This morning, Hurricane Helene is located about 350 miles southwest of Tampa with winds of 90 mph. It is moving north/northeast at 9 mph.

Helene continues to be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that is highly favorable for strengthening. The system is expected to cross the Loop Current while remaining in a moist, low-shear environment. The main inhibiting factor for intensification is the current concentric eyewall status. All intensity forecasts continue to forecast strengthening leading up to landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Helen to become a major hurricane in about 12 hours, and further intensification is expected over the subsequent 6 hours or so before landfall.

Helene is expected to intensify into a major hurricane by the time it reaches Florida’s Big Bend coast. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rain impacts will extend far from the center and outside the forecast cone, especially on the eastern side. In addition, the high forward speed at which Helene moves inland will cause strong winds to extend well inland across portions of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. In fact, GFS and ECMWF models suggest the possibility that the interior wind core could persist until the center reaches northern Georgia. The official forecast calls for a higher than average gust factor while Helene is inland.

Key messages…

*Landfall is expected tonight east of Apalachicola; Helene will become a major hurricane with winds of 115-130 mph (category three or four). The forecast track was shifted eastward in the latest NHC update.

*A hurricane warning is in effect from the Anclote River to Mexico Beach.

*The greatest impacts in terms of wind, storm surge and flooding along the Florida coast will be felt from Mexico Beach to Cedar Key and Tampa Bay (Florida’s “Big Bend”). The central Gulf Coast (from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) will remain on the favorable west side of the offshore circulation. Panama City Beach will be windy and wet today and tonight, but will not experience storm surge since the center is well to the east. Alabama’s Gulf Coast will see little to no rain.

*The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the high tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be inundated by rising waters moving inland from the shore. Water could reach the following heights above ground level anywhere in the indicated areas if the greatest tide occurs at the time of the high tide…

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL … 15-20 feet
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL … 10-15 feet
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL … 10-15 feet
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…8-12 feet
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL … 6-10 feet
Anclote River, FL to the middle of Longboat Key, FL…5-8 feet
Tampa Bay … 5-8 feet
Midway from Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…4-7 feet
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL…3-5 feet
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 feet
Charlotte Harbor…3-5 feet

*While the strongest winds associated with Helene will be felt east of Alabama over Georgia (where widespread power outages are likely), a tropical storm warning is in effect for extreme eastern and southeastern Alabama, where wind speeds could reach up to 40/45 mph tonight. A hurricane warning is in effect for Houston and Henry counties in southeastern Alabama, where wind speeds could briefly reach up to 70/75 mph in some locations.

We should note that tomorrow will be windy across the northern half of the state (though the day will be mostly dry) with gusts of up to 30/35 mph possible during the day.

*Most of the rain associated with Helene will fall over eastern Alabama today and tonight; a flash flood warning is in effect for about the eastern half of the state through tomorrow morning. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are possible there. The western side of the state will see only a few scattered showers.

*There is no tornado threat for Alabama. The tornado threat exists far to the east, across parts of northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the midlands and low countries of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For Alabama high school games tomorrow night…most stadiums will be dry, except for the Tennessee Valley in northern Alabama, where rain is possible. Temperatures will be in the high 20s.

On Saturday, UAB hosts Navy (kickoff at 11 a.m. CT at Protective Stadium)…skies will be partly sunny; temperatures will rise from near 75 degrees at kickoff to 79 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts Oklahoma at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday afternoon (kickoff 2:30 p.m. CT)…expect partly sunny skies with temperatures between 77 and 80 degrees.

Alabama hosts Georgia on Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium (kickoff 6:30 p.m. CT) … skies will be mostly clear and temperatures will drop into the high 20s.

ON THIS DAY IN 1955: On this day, the Atlantic reconnaissance plane Snowcloud Five crashed while investigating Hurricane Janet and was never seen again. Lt. Comdr. Windham with a crew of eight and two newspapermen reported that they were about to enter the center of the hurricane. Hurricane Janet made landfall at peak intensity near Chetumal, Mexico, on September 29. Janet’s landfall as a Category 5 hurricane on the Yucatan Peninsula was the first recorded instance of a storm of this intensity making landfall on a continental Atlantic mainland; prior to Janet, Category 5 landfalls were known only on islands.

Look here for the next video meeting this afternoon at 3:00 p.m. … enjoy the day!

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category: Alabama Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos