Hurricane Helene continues to rage across the Yucatan Channel and will soon reach the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is currently still a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Unfortunately, rapid intensification is very likely, and we could see a Category 4 hurricane upon landfall. Currently, Apalachicola is slated as the landfall target, but it could arrive sometime Thursday evening, anywhere from just west of Mexico Beach to several miles east of St. Marks.

Currently, the forecast track calls for the eye to move up the Alabama-Georgia state line during the morning hours Friday, weakening as it goes. With Helene now expected to reach Category 4, wind forecasts for the entire area will need to be upgraded, as well as rain and the potential for a few tropical tornadoes north and east of the eye.

Precipitation totals forecast statewide through 1 a.m. Saturday currently range from no precipitation at all in the southwest to nearly seven inches in the easternmost parts. Currently, Birmingham could receive 2.00-3.00 inches, Montgomery about 3.00-4.00 inches, and Huntsville about 4.00-5.00 inches. Surprisingly, Mobile is currently only forecast to receive less than an inch of precipitation; however, that could change as the forecast track moves further west.

Forecast wind gusts across the state are mostly nearly uniform. Much of Alabama could see gusts in the 30-40 mph range. Near the Alabama-Georgia border, gusts could reach as high as 40-50 mph, and in the far southeastern part of the state, they could even reach over 60 mph. We’re also expecting Category 1 hurricane-strength wind gusts in Atlanta.

00z HRRR composite reflectivity, valid as of Friday morning 2 a.m.

The latest HRRR run shows that southwestern and southeastern counties will be mostly dry by 2-3 a.m. Friday morning, central Alabama by 6-7 a.m., and northern Alabama just before noon. With tropical moisture still lingering, we cannot rule out some isolated showers after those times. These will be lighter and not last as long.

While our main focus is currently on Helene, we must not forget the other two disturbances out there in the tropics. Here is the latest information on both.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms have improved slightly over the past 24 hours in association with a broad low pressure system along a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of Cape Verde. Environmental conditions favor gradual development, and within the next few days a tropical depression is likely to form, moving westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
– Chance of occurrence within 48 hours: High (70%)
– Chance of occurrence within 7 days: High (80%)

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming increasingly organized around a storm-strength low pressure system located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Current satellite wind data indicate that the system has broken away from its frontal boundary and is producing tropical storm-force winds near the center. If this trend continues, it will likely soon develop into a tropical storm. The system is expected to continue moving east-northeastward across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. Check the National Weather Service’s offshore forecasts for more details, including gale warnings.
– Chance of occurrence within 48 hours: High (80%)
– Chance of occurrence within 7 days: High (80%)

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