No one will miss a momentous series in the last week of September at Yankee Stadium.

However, due to the events of the last few weeks, the stakes in this case have been significantly reduced.

Both the Orioles and Yankees had 83 wins on September 10 – just two weeks ago – with the Orioles half a game behind after another loss. The Orioles won three of their next 10 games and the Yankees won nine of 11, leaving only the hosts in the Bronx to win the division this week. Brandon Hydes The club can still secure a playoff spot with a win and losses to Kansas City or Minnesota on Tuesday, but they have to win and the Yankees have to lose for the division to even be in play.

The fact that the Orioles lost two series to Detroit and one each to Boston and San Francisco during that time didn’t help their cause. But what honestly proved more damaging was that the Orioles played their best baseball of the season in May and June, and the Yankees did, too.

The two teams were tied for first place on May 13, and the Yankees pulled away by a half-game when the Orioles and Blue Jays were eliminated on May 14. Remember the first time in ages the Orioles were swept in the regular season, when they went to St. Louis and lost three games in a row from May 20-22? The gap widened to three games at that point.

From there, the Orioles had arguably their best run of the season. They swept the terrible White Sox in four games, opening a stretch that summarized many of the season’s best performances. The Orioles won four games in Tampa Bay in early June. The Braves and Phillies came to town, their best starters got beaten, and they left town with losses.

That brought the Orioles to Yankee Stadium having won 21 of their last 31 games. The Yankees had a 23-9 record over the same period. We remember that they seemed to win and lose on the same day all summer, and that started then.

Yet the Orioles were still 1.5 games behind the Yankees in mid-June, and even though the Orioles won that series, they were only half a game behind New York.

Despite losing so many of their best pitchers to injury, the Orioles were in first place at the start of July. They traveled west on July 2, tied for the division lead and coming back with a three-game lead. The Orioles weren’t particularly impressive that month — they went 12-13 and allowed 19 more runs than they scored — but they spent the entire month in first place because the Yankees went 11-13.

That changed in August, when things went back and forth more. From July 27 to September 11 – 46 days, basically a quarter of the season – the division was within 1.5 games in both cases. The Orioles were half a game behind on September 11, when Keegan Akin allowed this monster walk-off home run Tyler O’Neilland from then on the deficit grew.

We know why. The Orioles have stopped hitting with runners in scoring position, for example. The bullpen feels restless, although it is now Craig Kimbrel-less and therefore with many pitchers who had good seasons and pitched well.

Unless something unusual happens next week, the Orioles will be in the playoffs. If they get that far, there’s a pretty good chance they’ll return to New York for the American League Division Series. The Yankees are about to reap the rewards of a long season and win another division title. They were at their best at the same time as the Orioles and now when it matters most.

Who will give their best in a short series in October? That would be worth the box office hit.

Meolis mailbag

“Obviously, I’m not close to the team, so I can’t judge team chemistry fairly. But I feel Jordan Westburg has the biggest impact on team chemistry… day in and day out on the field, and maybe overall. If I were the opposing manager, he’d be the guy I least want to face in a tie game, bases loaded, and two outs at a key position. … Others might pose a bigger threat to hit an ‘out,’ but the O’s have missed Westburg more than any other starter. Your thoughts on the intangibles?”

—Jeff LeVine

Jeff sent this last week Jordan Westburg came back, and I just nodded when I read it. I’m not in the business of caring about leadership or clubhouse chemistry — most of that is fixed by winning, and this team hasn’t won consistently in months — but on the field, they missed Westburg dearly. He was an All-Star for a reason, and his consistency was a huge factor. When I wrote about him doing the same thing every day before a game last summer, I was trying to show how reliable he wanted to be, and would ultimately become. When you’re consistent in your swing, approach, and preparation, the moments when the game can tip don’t feel any different than the low-pressure moments when some of his teammates celebrated. That’s what makes Westburg so special. This team is lucky to have him back.

📫 Do you have a question? Write to me here.

Talent pool

Samuel Basallothe Orioles’ 19-year-old catcher prospect, became FanGraphs’ top prospect this week after a number of departures and reshuffles. That’s the highest for Basallo in the national rankings, but certainly not crazy. He had an OPS of .820 with 16 home runs in 446 at-bats at Double-A Bowie and then finished with an OPS of .638 in 21 games at Triple-A Norfolk, the youngest player at that level. He’s improving behind the plate and making a big impact there. For me, it’s going to be a coin toss between him and Coby Mayo at the top of the organization’s top prospect rankings this fall.

statistics

96

Keegan Akin is in a unique season in Orioles history. With one week to go, he has 96 strikeouts and a .930 WHIP, and if he gets 100 strikeouts, he will become the second Orioles pitcher to ever strike out that many batters out of the bullpen while having a WHIP of less than one in at least 70 innings. Stu Miller did it in 1965. Felix Bautista had 110 strikeouts in just 61 innings last year before his elbow injury – and that was in situations where the stakes were much higher than Akin’s this year – but this is just remarkable to me. Keegan Akin. Who would have thought?

Read more

⚾️ Santander, the thug: Last week was another great installment of FanGraphs’ Talks Hitting series, this time featuring Anthony Santander. He deserves all the positive attention he’s getting. (Fangraphs)

😥 It was a tough fight: The Orioles’ inability to win at home this weekend highlighted how difficult virtually everything about this team has been, Kyle noted, and he also thinks it’s entirely possible they’ll get better because of it. (The Baltimore Banner)

🔎 Your best pitcher in the minor leagues? The great Brandon Young here, and it was really cool to see him honored by the organization. I just saw him pitching again this year, fully healthy, and it made sense why I heard so much about him. Andy has his story here; I still reserve the right to induct him into the hallowed halls of Arms on the Farm. (The Baltimore Banner)