It’s no secret that Senate Democrats are on the defensive this election cycle. The party currently holds a one-seat majority in the Senate, but with the resignation of Senator Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Republicans have effectively already lost a seat.

As we discussed last week, to gain a majority, Republicans need to win just one additional seat, which is not unrealistic: Democrats will have to fight tooth and nail to hold on to contested seats in Montana, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Maryland. To have a chance at a 50-50 split in the Senate, Democrats would have to win literally all of those races, some of which are in states where Donald Trump is almost certain to win easily.

And so the party is on the defensive. But what if the map could get bigger? The general consensus is that any incumbent Republican senator is almost certain to be re-elected. But what if that general consensus is wrong?

The Washington Post reported over the weekend that a “small but vocal number” of Senate Democrats believe the party is wasting potential opportunities to win seats and are “urging party leaders and policymakers to pour money into trying to knock incumbent Republicans out of the race.”

And not just any incumbent Republicans.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has limited resources and doesn’t want to see any of its party’s incumbents lose due to a lack of investment, but Axios reported that top Democratic politicians are telling their party’s biggest donors that their prospect is evolving.

These are not just rumors from unnamed partisan activists: Michigan Senator Gary Peters, the current chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, confirmed to Axios this week that the campaigns in Florida and Texas “are real and we hope to bring resources to those states.”

The report goes on to say that airtime for the race against Rick Scott has not yet been officially reserved, but “Democratic sources have told us they expect the DSCC to make a splash in Florida in the coming weeks.”

All in all, it would be an exaggeration to call the Senate elections in Texas and Florida the most competitive in the country. But this shift in focus is not rooted in utopian optimism.

Looking back at our recent coverage, Cruz narrowly won a second term in 2018, and this year Rep. Colin Allred looks like a candidate with plenty of crossover appeal. With that in mind, Chris LaCivita, a senior campaign adviser to Donald Trump, wrote on social media two weeks ago: “What the heck is going on with the Senate race in Texas?”

LaCivita added that he believes it is “time to hire real professionals to save Cruz.” Implicit in the message, of course, is that Cruz needs to be saved.

Meanwhile, Florida’s Scott — who has won three statewide races by incredibly narrow margins — has started pouring quite a bit of his own money into his re-election campaign over the past month. In addition, some recent statewide polls have shown former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell trailing the far-right incumbent by five percentage points or less, raising Democrats’ hopes of a potential upset victory.

And as if that weren’t enough, there’s Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska, a Republican who until recently was widely considered a surefire re-election candidate.

There is no Democratic candidate in the race, but independent Dan Osborn – best known for leading a labor strike at a Kellogg’s plant in 2021 – appears to be doing better than expected.

How do I know for sure? Partly because recent polls show Osborn within striking distance, and partly because Republicans are starting to target Osborn with attacks. If he wasn’t gaining support, they wouldn’t bother spending money in one of the most conservative states in the country.

Stay tuned.

This post updates our Related previous reporting.