RAPID CITY, SD (KOTA)—It was a beautiful and seasonable Sunday with clear skies and temperatures around 70 degrees in most of our area. Our region is also experiencing some wind, which will play a role in our forecast several times.
Part of a frontal system’s windy weather barrage will move through our area tomorrow, keeping things cloudy through the afternoon. A few showers are possible between 3:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. The air mass ahead of this front will still be fairly dry, so the front won’t be able to lift and push out much in terms of shower activity, but that possibility is still there.
The focus is quickly shifting to a brand new and robust ridge of high pressure that will peak for us on Wednesday and Thursday. You can see its impact on temperatures in our future forecast here.
The reason I’m talking about fire weather conditions — and I’m warning about the possibility that they could get close to critical at times on Wednesday and Thursday — is the fact that we have this low relative humidity that’s going to move into our area, while at the same time wind gusts are going to increase from 25 to 35 mph. It looks like the eastern areas of KOTA territory are most at risk when you combine that with the fact that our area — particularly our grasslands — is in a dry and parched state, meaning all the dry and hot weather has dried out the moisture. The other headline at this time is the return of about 90 degrees to the forecast area. Further along, we’re seeing a more active jet stream and cooler temperatures.
So tonight it’s going to be warmer, with 40s and even 50s temperatures under warm southerly winds and then our showers on Wednesday. At that point it’s going to be warmer across the region, we’re talking 80s and 90s temperatures before it cools off.
In addition to this cooling, we continue to see the potential for a more organized low that could produce showers and storms through the middle of the week after next. We’ll keep an eye on this to see if it stays that way.
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