Hurricane warnings and storm surge warnings of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) were issued for nearly the entire west coast of Florida on Tuesday as a potential tropical storm moves across the Caribbean Sea toward the Gulf Coast.
The storm is currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday. Authorities are urging the population to prepare and exercise caution.
The hurricane warning extends from Indian Pass in northwest Florida near Panama City down to Englewood and includes Tampa Bay.
As of 8 a.m. ET, the weather system was located about 150 miles west of Grand Cayman, with sustained winds of 35 mph. It is moving northwest at 9 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
If the system is upgraded to a storm, it will be named “Helene,” making it the fourth hurricane to hit the United States this year.
The center of the potential cyclone is forecast to move over the northwestern Caribbean overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, the NHC said.
Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are currently in effect for the entire west coast of the Sunshine State.
In addition, a storm surge warning was issued for the area from Indian Pass in Florida southward to Flamingo at the tip of the Florida peninsula.
A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are possible. It is usually issued 48 hours before tropical storm-force winds and conditions are expected to arrive.
A tropical storm warning is currently in effect from Indian Pass to the Walton-Bay County line and from north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood, as well as the Lower Florida Keys.
Outside the United States, a hurricane warning also applies to parts of eastern Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Tulum and Pinar del Río in Cuba.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) of rain to western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with isolated totals of 12 inches (30 centimeters). The southeastern U.S. is expected to receive 3 to 6 inches (7.5 to 15 centimeters) of rain, with isolated totals of 10 inches (25 centimeters). It is likely to cause flash flooding and urban flooding. Storm surges and strong tides are also expected, leading to flooding as rising waters move inland from the coast, the NHC said.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 41 counties on Monday, and sandbags were is distributed to residents of Tallahassee, Gulfport and Henrico County ahead of possible flooding.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a highly active hurricane season, predicting 17 to 24 named storms, eight to 13 of which could develop into hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes.
The hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30. Reasons for the high activity include higher than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, lower vertical wind shear, weaker tropical trade winds in the Atlantic, and a strengthened West African monsoon.
In the case of potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, record-high sea temperatures will fuel the disturbance’s intensification. According to Climate Central, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures have become at least 200 to 500 times more likely along the system’s projected path through the northern Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico due to human-caused climate change. Rapidly intensifying hurricanes are becoming more common in the warmer world.
The last three hurricanes to hit the United States were Beryl, which made landfall in Texas in June, Debby, which made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida and again in South Carolina in August, and Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana on September 11.
If this disturbance does indeed develop into a hurricane, it would be the fifth hurricane to hit Florida in three years, according to the Florida Climate Center.
