Good morning! It’s time for another day in the tropics… and still no major answers in the latest NHC update. We have a disorganized system right now, but how long will this last? And when it dissipates and starts moving across the eastern Gulf, how strong will it become?

These questions will plague all meteorologists throughout the day and make reporting extremely difficult. Our team will continue to provide you with insight and analysis on current events to the best of our ability. Let’s start this morning with a look at the 4 a.m. CDT warning:

Statistics:

LOCATION…18.9N 83.0W
About 120 miles … 195 kilometers WSW of Grand Cayman
About 240 miles … 390 kilometers south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba
MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE WIND FORCE…35 MPH…55 KM/H
CURRENT MOTION…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRINT…1001MB…29.56INCH

Observations and warnings:

We have new ones this morning for parts of Florida.

A storm surge warning has been issued for the area from Indian Pass, Florida south to Bonita Beach, Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Florida’s Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to the Walton-Bay County line and from north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.

NHC Discussion:

As you can see from the latest IR, we have a burst of convection near the Caymans. This is on the east side of the broad circulation, there is no defined center yet. Hurricane Hunters also indicate that the low-level circulation is not the largest. The initial intensity forecast has remained the same.

The development of this disturbance has been hampered by shear from the southwest. The various models show that the shear will ease over the next 12 to 24 hours and this system will get its chance to strengthen. And this rapid intensification is still forecast. The official NHC forecast calls for a Category 3 at landfall, still near the Big Bend area. However, until we have a defined center, there will continue to be some uncertainty about where exactly Helene will move in the future. The model consensus is still near the Big Bend. But we know that a tropical system is not just a point. And this is forecast to become a large system with wider impacts. That’s why the NHC has issued the hurricane and storm surge warnings for areas far from the center.

Most overnight models have the system only slowed down a little, so that’s something to keep an eye on. For now, though, the official forecast hasn’t changed much in terms of timing: a steady-moving major hurricane will make landfall Thursday evening. As it moves inland more quickly, stronger winds will be felt further inland.

I will end this early report with this: Please be alert if you live in Florida or have interests there. Make sure you have completed your hurricane preparations and are ready to act. Further inland, in Georgia and the state of Alabama, expect strong winds and very heavy rains. Today will be a crucial day for the hurricane hunters as they must gather the information they need to navigate the track.

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