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Commanders vs Bengals Prediction and Tips for September 23, 2024
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Commanders vs Bengals Prediction and Tips for September 23, 2024

The Cincinnati Bengals is hosting the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football. Kickoff at Paycor Stadium is at 8:15 p.m. ET.

The Bengals are the favorites by 7.5 points and have scored a total of 47.5 points in the game.

Washington (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U) beat the New York Giants 21-18 last week and lost 37-20 to Tampa Bay in Week 1.

Cincinnati (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U) lost 26-25 to Kansas City last week and 16-10 to New England in Week 1.

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Can the Commanders’ passing game wake up?

Washington defeated New York last Sunday when rookie QB Jayden Daniels got its first NFL win. The Commanders benefited from an injury to Giants kicker Graham Gano that forced New York to attempt multiple fourth downs. Washington outgained New York 425-304 in total yards, 215 rushing yards (6.1 YPC) and dominated time of possession by 15 minutes. Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. converted 17 carries into 133 yards, the highest performance of his career.

“I feel blessed,” said LSU product Daniels. “Can’t really complain. It wasn’t the prettiest game, but a win is a win.”

Washington has run the football effectively this season, ranking 5th in rushing yards (176.5) per game. Daniels’ passing attack hasn’t been as lethal, with the Heisman Trophy winner averaging 185.5 passing yards (20th) with no touchdowns. The Commanders lack productivity at the receiver position, with their two best pass catchers being RBs. Austin Ekeler and TE Zach Ertz. Professional in the sixth year Terry McLaurinwho has caught 1,000 yards passing for the last four seasons in a row, was only able to catch eight passes for 39 yards in two games.

The Commanders allow 27.5 points (29th) and 348.0 total yards (22nd) per game, including 227.5 passing yards (22nd) and 120.5 rushing yards (16th). They have two sacks, zero interceptions and one fumble recovery this season. Experienced LB Bobby Wagner leads the team in tackles (19) and tackles for loss (four), but only five players have recorded double-digit tackles. Fourth-year professional CB Benjamin St-Juste leads Washington with four passes defended. The defense is currently hampered by injuries, as St. Juste was limited at Friday’s practice and several defensive players were limited.

Injury report: CB Benjamin St-Juste, DT Jer’Zhan Newton, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dorance Armstrong and CB Emmanuel Forbes Jr. are questionable to play on Monday.

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Cincinnati lost a heartbreaking game last week

Cincinnati suffered a devastating loss last week when a pass interference call overturned a failed fourth down conversion that allowed Kansas City a game-winning field goal attempt. The Bengals played a great game, outplaying the Chiefs and holding Patrick Mahomes to 137 passing yards with two interceptions. Cincy also had six quarterback pressures, three sacks and four tackles for loss. The Bengals struggled to run the football, but quarterback Joe Burrow Passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns.

“You know, that’s one of the plays that we could benefit from at some point this season. That’s what I told the guys,” Bengals coach Zac Taylor said of the PI call. “They call it like they see it. I thought they called a very fair play, and they saw that as a penalty. So they called a penalty.”

Cincinnati ranks 22nd in total yards, 26th in points scored, 17th in passing yards and 30th in rushing yards per game. Needs more from RB Zack Moss (21 carries for 78 yards), who signed with the team this season but got a good performance out of the RB in the second year Follow Braun (6.0 YPC). The Bengals’ passing attack is in good hands with Burrow, who showed last week that concerns about his wrist were overblown. With TE, he has a solid cast of pass catchers at his disposal Mike Gesicki and WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Jermaine Burton And Andrei Iosivas.

Cincy has a solid defense, bolstered by its secondary (third against the pass), but the Bengals have been exploited on the ground, allowing 159.5 rushing yards per game (26th). They were able to put some pressure on Mahomes last weekend, but need more players besides DE Trey Hendrickson (2.0 sacks) to get behind the line. Cincinnati has three sacks, two interceptions and one fumble recovery this season.

Injury report: TE Mike Gesicki, S Vonn Bell, WR Tee Higgins, OT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins, DT Sheldon Rankins and DT BJ Hill are questionable to play on Monday.

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Best Bets for Washington Commanders vs Cincinnati Bengals

Side bet on the whole game

Insider status:

Evaluation:

Washington has run the ball effectively in two games and the offense ranks in the top five in both EPA/game and success rate. The Bengals have trouble stopping the run and have injuries on the defensive line that could leave them vulnerable. The injuries to Gesicki and Higgins are also a concern as the Bengals have trouble running the ball and need complementary targets in the passing game to free up Chase.

Six of the NFL’s biggest favorites fell short last week, with four of those teams actually losing. The Commanders have enough on their side to keep the game to one touchdown – a primetime performance from Daniels will be the difference in this game.

Prediction: Commanders +7.5

Total selection for the whole game

Insider status:

Evaluation:

The Commanders will establish the run early against the Bengals and look to open up the pass for Daniels later in the game. Cincinnati’s problems stopping the run and their injuries in the trenches make them vulnerable to the run, but they’ve been tough to throw against. The Bengals have allowed just one passing play of over 20 yards this season. The Commanders rank 20th in offensive DVOA and Daniels averages the lowest intended air yards per yard (4.4) – the Bengals’ secondary presents a tough challenge.

On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati could be without Higgins again. Even if he plays, I’m not convinced he’ll be healthy and ready to play enough to significantly boost the home team’s offense. Cincy is average in most offensive metrics and will need to make the most of its passing game (third-highest pass percentage) to be successful given the ineffectiveness of the run game.

Forecast: Under 47.5

Author profile

Michael Briggs, “Michael Briggs”

I dove headfirst into sports betting because I was gripped by an irresistible call to action. I am a sports journalist by trade and graduated from Michigan State University in 2012 with a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism with a concentration in Sports Reporting. With my journalism background, I combine thorough research with a keen eye for hidden value to bring consistent profits to my clients. In my free time, I enjoy talking the trade with like-minded people. This allows me to look at different angles and avoid pitfalls that hinder my progress. In short, their insight and intuition either help or hinder my decision-making process. The pitfalls to avoid in sports betting are following the crowd, assumptions, gullibility, and lack of responsibility. A bettor is never as good or as bad as their best or worst phases. If you dedicate yourself to acquiring knowledge, you will never feel like you know it all. At its core, sports betting is about intuition. If you can predict which way the wind will blow, you’ll never feel caught in the current. Sometimes you have to be counter-intuitive. The risk is in the mind of the beholder, but if you bet with me, you’ll find that the reward justifies the stake!

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