Chicago winters can be unpredictable, but the forecasts continue to come true.

Now that fall has officially begun, attention turns to the coming season and what might come after.

Although Chicago winters are typically bitterly cold with some snow, the cold and amount of snow can vary dramatically from year to year.

Still, there are some factors that can shed light on what to expect in the coming seasons. The only problem is that many of the predictions seem to contain contradictory thoughts.

Here’s what you should know:

Farmer’s Almanac forecast for the 2024-25 winter season

Recently, the Farmer’s Almanac released its winter weather forecast for the coming year, predicting cold and dry weather for the Great Lakes region, including northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana.

The weather forecast also predicted snowfall along the Mississippi River and cold and snow in southern Illinois and Indiana.

How accurate are these predictions?

The publication gives an 80% success rate for its predictions, but many studies have challenged this figure over the years.

Many meteorologists dispute the accuracy and methodology of the publication. A study from the University of Illinois, cited by Popular Mechanics, concludes that the Old Farmer’s Almanac is correct only 52% of the time. This is essentially the same as the probability of a coin being heads or tails.

What about the National Weather Service?

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center only offers a forecast through the end of meteorological fall, which ends on November 30. That forecast calls for above-average temperatures in the Chicago area during that period, and about equal chances of either wetter or drier conditions than normal.

The forecast really matters when it comes to the formation of a La Niña pattern. According to the NWS, there is a 74% chance of La Niña occurring in the first two months of winter in December and January.

La Niña patterns occur when sea surface temperatures are unusually cold along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. Then the trade winds become stronger and push warmer water toward Asia, allowing cold water to rise to the surface near the west coast of the Americas.

These cool waters push the jet stream northward, attracting moisture that brings rain to the western United States. Other parts of the country are also affected.

In the Chicago area in particular, winters associated with a strong La Niña pattern tend to be warmer, but also see more snowfall and the area is more frequently affected by blizzards and winter storms, according to the Illinois State Climatologist.

However, the publication notes that the impacts can vary greatly depending on the strength of the pattern and that there are fewer La Niña patterns on which to base forecasts.

A new La Niña forecast is expected to be released later this week.

What else is there to know?

The NBC 5 Storm Team stressed that making predictions that far in advance is difficult and that a lot of information is often missing.

Meteorologist Kevin Jeanes of the NBC 5 Storm Team analyzed the last ten years of weather data for Chicago to gain insights for the winter.

Especially in recent years, the first snowfall has been everywhere. Last year was Chicago’s warmest winter in 92 years, but it still snowed on Halloween.

On average over the 30 years, the first measurable snowfall (0.1 inches or more) occurred on November 18. Last year, however, it was October 31 and in 2021 it was December 28 – another indicator of how unpredictable the situation is in the long term.

It’s worth noting that La Niña has a 74% chance of being present from November to January. Depending on its strength, that could mean a wetter and colder winter for Chicago, Jeanes said.