Louisiana has barely recovered from the effects of Hurricane Francine, but is already looking towards the Gulf of Mexico and hoping for the best.

So far, at least, the news seems good, although not so much for parts of Florida, says Jay Grymes, Louisiana state climatologist.

The National Hurricane Center’s first forecast cone for the disturbance expected to develop into Hurricane Helene was released Monday, showing that the disturbance, currently located in the Caribbean between Jamaica and Guatemala, has the potential to develop into a major storm but will approach the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend region between Thursday and Friday.

Grymes said the forecast is unusually stable this early because weather factors such as an aloft low pressure system – a pool of colder air – over parts of Louisiana are pushing the system northeast. The low pressure system will create a counterclockwise circulation that will “dumping it toward Florida,” he said.

In fact, Louisiana may get a break from the heat due to the low as humidity drops and temperatures cool down after the 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius) experienced in parts of the state over the past few days.

“Everyone in south Louisiana knows you always have to keep an eye out when something is going to enter the Gulf,” Grymes said. “But this is one of those situations where, even from this distance, you can be fairly certain that Louisiana is going to be safe.”

Grymes said there’s a chance the models could change drastically in the next few days, but right now that’s unlikely. But for those who own condos or vacation homes in the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend, there’s certainly cause for concern.

He points out that the warm waters of the Caribbean and the Gulf will strengthen the storm. He also does not rule out the possibility that it will reach Category 3 before it makes landfall, which would mean wind speeds of 178 km/h and more – and would classify it as a major hurricane.

The storm’s path could contribute to its strengthening. According to Grymes, it looks like it will “cross the gap” between the Yucatan and Cuba and avoid moving over land, which would weaken it. It could then move toward the warm waters of the Loop Current in the eastern Gulf, which will also fuel the storm.

At the same time, it seems unlikely that strong wind shear, which can destroy hurricanes and contribute to their weakening, will occur.

“As a Category 2 or possibly Category 3, this is going to be a real hell of a slog for the Florida Panhandle, assuming it impacts there, either in the Panhandle or the Big Bend,” Grymes said. “People in Florida, like people in Louisiana, know how to deal with tropical weather, but this storm is going to leave a pretty hard footprint, a pretty hard hit, no matter where it goes.”

While many in southern Louisiana are fixated on late August as the peak month for hurricanes due to experience with strong storms like Ida, Laura and Katrina, Grymes says the months of September and early to mid-October should not be underestimated.

“We’re still in the middle of the season. Remember, the peak of the season was only about two weeks ago,” he said. “The Gulf is still very active through late September, early and mid-October. Then late October is when the Gulf really starts to calm down.”

But that doesn’t mean Louisiana residents should be less vigilant in late October, Grymes says. He points to Hurricane Juan, which hit Louisiana in late October 1985. Hurricane Zeta also hit the state in late October 2020.

The hurricane season officially ends on November 30th.