It is the bloodiest day in Lebanon since Hezbollah attacked Israel in support of Hamas on October 7 last year.

Israel launched a series of massive air strikes this morning that have so far killed 274 people, according to the Lebanese government, and Israelis are warning of further attacks.

The war is escalating rapidly; the scale of the Israeli air offensive is further accelerating this process.

They are warning civilians to leave the areas they are attacking. Next, they said, will be the Bekaa Valley in northeastern Lebanon, a Hezbollah stronghold.

Even before the current escalation, well over 100,000 Lebanese had been forced to flee their homes due to Israeli attacks and there was no prospect of an immediate return.

We are witnessing another massive escalation on the part of the Israelis.

Perhaps they believe that Hezbollah’s position is currently so weakened that this is their chance to inflict serious damage on it and change the strategic picture in the mountains and cities on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border.

While the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has been going on for decades, the current war between the two sides began the day after Hamas attacks on October 7 last year.

Hezbollah launched a limited but sustained barrage of rockets across the border to pin down Israeli forces and damage Israeli property and the Israeli population. Some 60,000 Israelis were forced to evacuate into the interior of the country. In recent days, returning to their homes has been added to Israel’s war aims.

The United States and Britain, as well as other allies – and critics – of Israel, are convinced that the only hope for calming this dangerous crisis is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has said that attacks on Israel will continue until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. But it now seems quite clear that neither the Hamas leader nor the Israeli president are willing to accept the deal put on the table by the US.

The war itself enjoys overwhelming support among Israelis, even though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains unpopular among large sections of the Israeli electorate despite improved poll ratings.

Many Israelis also consider Netanyahu to be a terrible leader who told lies and abandoned the hostages in Gaza. So he is a very controversial figure, but he has the backing of the right-wing in parliament, which supports him, and so he enjoys political security.

His decision to go on the offensive is risky.

Hezbollah may be wounded, but it has enough strength to fight back, and that is why Israel’s friends and enemies are still preparing for the worst.