The US presidential election will take place on November 5. In national polls by analyst Nate Silver, Democrat Kamala Harris is ahead of Republican Donald Trump by 49.2 to 46.2. In my last article on US politics last Wednesday, Harris was ahead of Trump by 48.9 to 46.0.

Joe Biden’s final position before withdrawing as the Democratic nominee on July 21 was a national polling deficit of 45.2 to 41.2 against Trump.

It has been nearly two weeks since the debate between Harris and Trump on September 10. In my previous article, I was skeptical that Harris’s gains would continue after the debate, but they have.

The US president is not elected by popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives as many electoral votes as it has seats in the House of Representatives (based on population) and Senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, and you need 270 electoral votes (out of a total of 538) to win.

Compared to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased in Trump’s favor, and Harris would need to have at least a two percentage point lead in the popular vote in Silver’s model to be considered the favorite in the Electoral College.

Harris’ probability of winning the Electoral College fell to a low of 35% in Silver’s model on September 9, but she has returned to the favorite role with a 54% probability of winning, up from 43.5% last Wednesday. Silver’s model is now in better agreement with the FiveThirtyEight model, which gives Harris a 62% probability of winning.

Pennsylvania is the key swing state with 19 electoral votes, and Harris now leads there by 1.5 points, up 1.4 points since last week. Harris also has narrow leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. If Harris wins all the states she is currently leading in, she will win the Electoral College by 276 votes to 262.

Since my last US article on Wednesday, Harris has continued to poll well nationally and polled better in Pennsylvania and Michigan (15 electoral votes), which explains why she is once again the favorite in Silver’s model, after Trump was the favorite from late August until last Thursday.

Trump is ahead by just 0.1 percentage points in North Carolina, but a scandal involving Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson broke on Thursday and no polls have been conducted in North Carolina since that scandal. That scandal could hurt Trump in North Carolina, which has 16 electoral votes.

Popularity ratings and business news

Harris now has a barely positive net popularity rating of +0.3 in the national FiveThirtyEight total, with 46.9% approval and 46.6% disapproval. After big initial gains, her ratings have slowly improved over the past month. Trump’s net popularity rating is -10.1, with 52.8% disapproval and 42.7% approval; his ratings have barely changed over the past month.

Trump’s running mate JD Vance is unpopular with a net approval rating of -10.8, while Harris’ running mate Tim Walz has a net approval rating of +3.8, making him the most popular of the four. Biden remains unpopular with a net approval rating of -15.3. For Harris, Biden is best off staying out of the headlines.

In economic news, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5 points last Wednesday, the first cut since 2020. From 2022 to 2023, interest rates had risen from almost zero to over 5%.

The Silver Economic Index, which averages six indicators, is currently at +0.10. Many leftists despise the stock market, but its recent performance offsets poorer data on other indicators.

Republicans likely to win majority in Senate

Elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate will take place simultaneously with the presidential election on November 5. The 435 representatives will be elected in single-member constituencies, with seats allocated to the states based on their population.

The House of Representatives serves only two years, so the last House election was in the midterm elections in November 2022. Back then, Republicans won the House with 222 seats to 213 seats for Democrats, with a national vote share of 50.0 to 47.3.

According to the nationwide House majority poll conducted by FiveThirtyEight, Democrats are ahead 46.7 to 44.5. If Harris wins, Democrats have a good chance of regaining control of the House.

There are two senators for each of the 50 states. Senators serve six-year terms, with one-third being elected every two years. Including independent senators who serve with them, Democrats currently control the 100-member Senate by a 51-49 margin.

This year, Democrats and independents will defend 23 of the 33 regular Senate seats up for election (there will also be a special election in safely Republican Nebraska). Trump easily won West Virginia, Montana and Ohio in both 2016 and 2020, and Democrats are defending seats in all three states.

After the retirement of former Democratic Senator (now independent) Joe Manchin, West Virginia is a sure-fire win for Republicans in this election, and Republicans are also comfortably ahead in Montana. If no other seats change hands, winning West Virginia and Montana will give Republicans a 51-49 Senate majority.

The Democrats have a narrow lead in Ohio and even larger leads in the Senate elections in the swing states of Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania (all Democrats). They have an outside chance of winning seats in Florida and Texas.

Even if Harris wins, Republicans will likely have at least a 51-49 majority in the Senate. The rule of two senators per state benefits Republicans because they dominate in sparsely populated, rural states.

If the Democrats lose the Senate, even if Harris wins the presidential election, Republicans would have veto power over Harris’s legislative proposals, as well as her Cabinet and judicial appointments. This means that no left-wing judge would be appointed to the Supreme Court if a vacancy arose.