What could be better than looking toward a bright future that you are sure is coming? When that future comes to you faster than you expected.
Need an example? How about the Houston Texans? Nobody thought last season that they would rise from the graves of the league and become an instant contender. Sure, they drafted a franchise QB of the future, but few thought that future was truly the present.
That can happen sometimes in fantasy, too. Think of Lions tight end Sam LaPorta last season. People thought he would eventually become one of the premier fantasy assets at the position. But he did it right away.
Others take a little longer. They may be parked behind a starter, but when they get their chance, they jump to the front of the fantasy line. One such scenario involves Buccaneers rookie running back Bucky Irving.
Currently, he is best used as a handcuff for established starter Rachaad White. But anyone who reads the game reports or takes a look at the advanced stats is aware of White’s horrific inefficiency.
According to Pro Football Reference, White had nine broken tackles last season on 272 run attempts. By comparison, Travis Etienne Jr. led the league with 31 broken tackles on five fewer attempts. Zach Charbonnet had one more with 10 broken tackles and had only 108 runs.
White averaged a miserable 3.7 yards per carry in 2023, putting him in 80th place with Tyler Allgeier among all running backs, just ahead of DeeJay Dallas.
So far this season, White is even worse, much worse – 2.0 per run. Irving, on the other hand, has completed about 40 percent of the RB run attempts for the Bucs and is averaging 5.3 – more than double White’s per run.
The reason for this difference is interesting. Neither has broken many tackles (both have just one). White actually fares significantly better after contact, with 50 YAC yards compared to just 31 for Irving.
The biggest difference in Irving’s favor is in yards before Contact. According to Pro Football Reference, Irving has 60 and White has… zero. Zero. Nada. Deebo Samuel, a wide receiver, is the only other player this season with at least 10 rushing attempts with worse yardage before contact, at minus-1.
How can this be? Is it a technical error? Human error? Does White’s offensive line hate him? Or is he just slow to hit the hole? Maybe he’s bad at avoiding contact?
The thing is, Irving is younger, appears to have more “suddenness” on both the eye test and the stat sheet, and he doesn’t have any groin issues.
Oh yeah, that’s right, we almost forgot. White has groin pain. That forced him to sit out last week’s game in Detroit. He went back in but was ineffective. He was limited in practice this week.
He’s not in danger of missing the game, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be at full capacity. Plus, he could make the problem worse. Or he could continue to be ineffective, which could lead to a more effective Irving being used more often.
Or…the Bucs could get past a terrible Denver team and then run down the clock to pull out an easy but ugly win. Such a game would require the Bucs offense to attempt more offense than usual. And in a game they control, there would be no need to force-feed a sagging, ineffective starter. Thus, the Bucky Irving Breakout Game is born.
Now look, these scenarios aren’t necessarily likely, but they’re certainly possible. Don’t bench a stud to play Irving. But if you’re feuding with a Zach Moss or Zamir White type, then buck the norm and play Bucky.
Big weeks
Alexander Mattison RB, Raiders, vs. Panthers (FanDuel $5,700/DraftKings $5,400)
Neither he nor Radiers’ running back Zamir White have impressed. But Mattison has managed both runs in the red zone so far. And there could be scoring opportunities against the Panthers.
Jauan Jennings WR, 49ers, at Rams (FD $5,200/DK $4,100)
Deebo Samuel is probably out, George Kittle has a hamstring problem and Brandon Aiyuk is invisible. Oh yeah, and Christian McCaffrey is out, too.
Demarcus Robinson WR, Rams, vs. 49ers (FD $6,100/DK $5,000)
Speaking of players not included: Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Matthew Stafford isn’t a bad QB, and Robinson has the best chance to step up as a WR — although we’re more optimistic about TE Colby Parkinson.
Diontae Johnson WR, Panthers, at Raiders (FD $5,300/DK $4,900)
Yes, we know. We’re Diontae truthers. Or maybe we’re Carolina homers. But if we’re weak at WRs, we’ll give Johnson another chance now that Andy Dalton is his QB.
Small weaknesses
Kyren Williams RB, Rams, vs. 49ers (FD $7,500/DK $7,100)
If you have no receivers, are facing a strong defense, and are already having trouble getting your running game going, this week is probably not the week to fix the problem.
Carson Steele RB, Chiefs, at Falcons (FD $5,200/DK $5,400)
He was one of the hot additions of the week and we’re not set on him long-term. But we want to see how the workload is distributed between him and Samaje Perine before we force Steele into our lineup.
Betting on the NFL?
James Conner RB, Cardinals, vs. Lions (FD $7,400/DK $6,600)
The Lions were the strongest defense against opposing RBs last season – allowing more than a full PPR point per game. But what about this season? So far, though, defense against opposing RBs again.
Cam Akers RB, Texans, at Vikings (FD $4,000/DK $4,700)
Joe Mixon (ankle) and backup Dameon Pierce (hamstring) missed practice this week, so Akers is back to haunt you. He’s disappointed us too many times in the past. To us, he’s nothing more than a DFS arrow.
Insanity’s Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit competing rosters for a DFS contest:
Website: FanDuel
slate: Sun. Main game (13 games)
type: 15 $ Tournament
Main prize: $250,000
pot: 2 million USD
Drew’s Crew
QB: Sam Darnold, Min (vs. Hou) $7,100
RB: Bucky Irving, TB (vs. Den) 5,200 USD
RB: Saquon Barkley, Phi (at NO) $8,700
WR: Justin Jefferson, Min (vs. Hou) 9,200 USD
WR: Nico Collins, Hou (at least) $7,600
WR: Rashee Rice, KC (in Atl) $7,300
TE: Colby Parkinson, LAR (vs. SF) $5,300
Bending: Jauan Jennings, SF (at LAR) $5,200
DEF: 49ers, SF (at LAR) $4,400
Wilks Warrior
QB: Kyler Murray, Ari (vs. Det) $8,300
RB: Bucky Irving, TB (vs. Den) 5,200 USD
RB: Jordan Mason, SF (at LAR) $8,300
WR: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ari (vs. Det) $7,500
WR: Jameson Williams, Det (at Ari) $6,300
WR: Diontae Johnson, car (at LV) $5,300
TE: Brock Bowers, LV (vs. car) $6,300
Bending: Justin Jefferson, Min (vs. Hou) 9,200 USD
DEF: Giants, NYG (at Cle) $3,300
Late squad changes, see @NYPost_Loftis on X and @nypfantasymadman on threads
Season risked: 32 USD
Season wins: Jarad $34, Drew $0