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Looking at Indiana Fever in the first round
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Looking at Indiana Fever in the first round

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The WNBA playoffs begin Sunday with four first-round games. The Indiana Fever return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and have qualified for the postseason thanks to the performance of Caitlin Clark. The Fever open the playoffs Sunday on the road against the Connecticut Sun at 3 p.m. ET (ABC).

USA TODAY reporters give their playoff picks, looking at the Las Vegas Aces looking to defend their WNBA title behind superstar A’ja Wilson, and the Fever’s chances of advancing in the first round against the Sun.

Can the Aces repeat their slow start to the season?

It’s so, so, so hard to repeat the title, let alone do it three times. Despite having almost the same team as the last two seasons, the Aces haven’t found their rhythm – even though A’ja Wilson has had one of the most spectacular seasons of any athlete in any sport. It could be the expectations, the injuries, the Olympic break. Or maybe it’s just one of those years where it just doesn’t work out. Either way, they’re not the same powerhouse they once were and I don’t think they’ll even make the finals, let alone win it all. − Nancy Armor

No. The Las Vegas Aces finished the season strong, but aren’t as strong as they were last year. A’ja Wilson will need to be her dominant MVP self throughout the postseason, and if she has a few bad games, the Aces will pack up and head home early. It’s no secret why no professional sports team has won three in a row since the Shaq-Kobe Lakers of the early 2000s, because it’s damn near impossible. − Scooby Axe

The Aces didn’t resemble the dominant two-time defending champions in the first month of the season – they started 6-6 – and they looked shaky again after the Olympic break – losing 4 of 6. But they’ve been in top form since late August. The Aces won 9 of 10 games to close the regular season and seem to have rediscovered their elegance. But elegance and experience might not be enough this year. Las Vegas, with its four 2024 gold medalists, can beat any team in the league on any given day, but aside from MVP favorite A’ja Wilson, they’ve lacked consistency. The Aces are 1-6 overall this season against top seeds New York and Minnesota, and either the Liberty or the Lynx will end the Aces’ run. – Ellen J. Horrow

As historic as the season has been for A’ja Wilson, it’s hard to trust everything else around her to pull off a third straight win. She’s one of a kind, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if she ran out of steam at some point. Las Vegas finished the season strong and that should give them enough momentum to overtake Seattle, but in five games against a New York team so desperate to knock them off their perch? The Liberty have finally defeated the mighty Dragon. − Jordan Mendoza

Minnesota has been my champion favorite since June, so I’m sticking with the Lynx. Aside from Napheesa Collier having an MVP-worthy season, Kayla McBride playing well from anywhere, and Bridget Carleton being a strong Most Improved contender, what impresses me most about Minnesota is that they are the epitome of a team. They play SO well together, and I think that makes all the difference. Myisha Hines-Allen was a secretly good pick for them, too. − Lindsay Quick

Will the Indiana Fever make it out of the first round?

Absolutely not. Indiana has had a fantastic turnaround since the Olympic break — there’s no better argument for extending the preseason to give teams more practice time than the Fever — but Caitlin Clark and Co. are no match for an experienced Connecticut team. Maybe if Indiana had home-court advantage. But asking the Fever, new to the playoffs, to steal at least one game from a Sun team that has reached the semifinals or better every time in the last five seasons is asking too much. − Nancy Armor

Not this year. The reasons the Fever went from being a laughingstock in the league to a playoff contender are obvious, but this team is too young and too inexperienced to go far into the playoffs. If they want any chance at all, they’ll have to do it on defense, and Connecticut has too many offensive options to knock them off in a three-game series. Expect record ratings and a short series. − Scooby Axe

The Fever haven’t made the playoffs since 2016, so just getting to the playoffs is an accomplishment for this young team. Indiana faces a strong, experienced and well-coached Sun team — featuring veterans Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones — that made the final two years ago. But this isn’t the same Fever team that started the season 1-8, and All-Stars Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston have found their rhythm in the second half of the season. Although the Sun won the season series 3-1, the Fever won the last meeting on Aug. 28. Indiana can and will win a game against Connecticut, but ultimately the Sun’s playoff experience will win out. – Ellen J. Horrow

Aside from Caitlin Clark, Indiana is a team not to be underestimated because of how the season ended. Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell have proven to be dangerous weapons alongside Clark. It wasn’t until the final game of the regular season that Indiana was able to end its long losing streak against Connecticut. In a best-of-three game, the Fever certainly have a chance to force a third game, but the experience factor will play a big role in this one. Expect Alyssa Thomas to take control of a third game and prevent Clark from pulling off an upset in her first postseason. − Jordan Mendoza

I just don’t see it happening. Connecticut is strong and has had a lot of good playoff results in recent years. However, none of the Fever starters have any postseason experience. Alyssa Thomas knows how to take the postseason to the next level and I fully expect her to do just that. I’m predicting a Sun win. − Lindsay Quick

First round

No. 8 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 1 New York Liberty

  • Nancy Armour: Freedom instead of dream in 2
  • Scooby Axson: Freedom instead of dream in 2
  • Ellen J. Horrow: Freedom instead of dream in 2
  • Jordan Mendoza: Freedom instead of dream in 2
  • Lindsay Schnell: Freedom instead of dream in 2

No. 7 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 2 Minnesota Lynx

  • Nancy Armour: Lynx over Mercury in 3
  • Scooby Axson: Lynx over Mercury in 2
  • Ellen J. Horrow: Lynx over Mercury in 2
  • Jordan Mendoza: Lynx over Mercury in 2
  • Lindsay Schnell: Lynx over Mercury in 2

No. 6 Indiana Fever vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun

  • Nancy Armour: Sun over fever in 2
  • Scooby Axson: Sun over Fever in 2
  • Ellen J. Horrow: Sun over fever in 3
  • Jordan Mendoza: Sun instead of fever in 3
  • Lindsay Schnell: Sun over fever in 2

No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Las Vegas Aces

  • Nancy Armour: Aces over Storm in 2
  • Scooby Axson: Aces over Storm in 2
  • Ellen J. Horrow: Aces over Storm in 3
  • Jordan Mendoza: Aces over Storm in 3
  • Lindsay Schnell: Aces over Storm in 2

Semifinal

Nancy Armour: Freedom against Aces

Freedom over Aces in 5

Scooby-Doo: Liberty vs. Aces

Freedom over Aces in 4

Ellen J. Horrow: Freedom vs. Aces

Freedom over Aces in 5

Jordan Mendoza: Liberty vs Aces

Freedom over Aces in 4

Lindsay Schnell: Liberty vs. Aces

Aces over Liberty in 5

Semifinal

Nancy Armour: Lynx vs. Sun

Lynx over sun in 4

Scooby Axson: Lynx vs. Sun

Lynx over sun in 5

Ellen J. Horrow: Lynx vs. Sun

Lynx over sun in 4

Jordan Mendoza: Lynx vs Sun

Lynx over sun in 5

Lindsay Schnell: Lynx vs. Sun

Lynx over sun in 4

final

Nancy Armour: Freedom versus Lynx

Freedom over Lynx in 5

Scooby-Tales: Liberty vs. Lynx

Freedom over Lynx in 4

Jordan Mendoza: Liberty vs. Lynx

Freedom over Lynx in 5

Ellen J. Horrow: Freedom vs. Lynx

Freedom over Lynx in 5

Lindsay Schnell: Lynx vs. Aces

Lynx over Aces in 5

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