The future of controversial Florida coach Billy Napier is marked by an aura of inevitability.

After two lackluster home losses and a seven-game losing streak against FBS opponents, Napier’s poor record has essentially sealed his coaching fate in Gainesville. Now all that remains is to determine the timing of his departure.

Napier’s tenure is philosophically consistent with a famous quote from Florida athletic director Jeremy Foley, adapting a line from Henry Kissinger when he declared in 2004 after firing Ron Zook: “If something has to be done sometime, it has to be done now.”

The “someday” part is secure, as no one expects Napier to be back on the sidelines for the Gators in 2025. Then come the various factors that require immediate action, as an impatient fan base waits for a little hope to cling to.

Florida travels to Mississippi State this weekend. A loss at Starkville ultimately cost Ron Zook his job in 2004, leading to Foley’s citation. That came seven games into the season in late October, which was considered shockingly early at the time. (Foley then outsmarted Notre Dame and hired Urban Meyer, one of the most significant signings in school history.)

The notion that the end of October is early is now old news. As of October 2, 2022, five coaches from the major conferences have been fired. Here are five questions that need to be answered as Florida decides the future of its struggling football program.

1. Why make a change soon?

Generally, the reason for a change early in the season has to be a clear path to improvement. If that path is uncertain, which seems to be the case in Florida, the only reason for the change would be an emotional response to satisfy the fan base.

One of the reasons for not firing Napier so early in the season is also an indictment of his ability to build a high-caliber SEC team. There is no obvious interim hire. Veteran defensive line coach Ron Roberts has plenty of head coaching experience, but he’s more of an old-school disciplinarian than someone a team would rally around. He’s also new.

Former Central Michigan coach Dan Enos also joins the staff as a special assistant. He was fired as offensive coordinator twice in the last five seasons and also lacks the close relationships with the players since he only arrived in February.

Napier is both the head coach and the primary playmaker. There aren’t many answers or improvements on the offensive team, so would replacing him mean losing a leader respected in the locker room and setting the offense back even further by bringing in a new primary playmaker? (Tight ends coach Russ Callaway is a former offensive coordinator at Samford, which could make him a potential playmaker depending on how the dynamic plays out.)

2. What would it cost?

The final amount for Florida will be around $27 million, depending on the timing. If they take action towards the end of the month, the settlement amount would be about $27.7 million, half of which would be due in 30 days. That’s more than $13.8 million that needs to be paid out quickly.

The figure gradually decreases so that it would be less than $27 million at the end of the regular season. Regardless, Florida will have the honor of having made the second-largest severance payment in college football history. That’s light years behind the more than $76 million payout to Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher, which included a lump sum payment of $19.2 million over 60 days.

Florida has a lot of money, so this won’t be a deciding factor in any decision. But it’s important nonetheless. The reason Florida got here is because Napier negotiated a seven-year contract with 85% guaranteed. Napier was picky, having turned down offers from both South Carolina and Auburn.

3. Who will make the decisions?

Florida is going through an interesting period in administration. The board misfired on hiring the school’s last president, with Ben Sasse leaving a series of questions about his spending and hiring. He resigned in July for personal reasons, but a spate of ugly stories since his resignation have dealt him a nasty blow. (The $176,800 Christmas party is the last of his $1.3 million in private catering expenses in his first year in office.)

Interim President Kent Fuchs is also the former president, a popular academic who barely got involved in sports during his time leading the school. He hired Scott Stricklin as athletic director. Stricklin has been the SEC’s athletic director since 2010, when he took over at Mississippi State, and Florida’s athletic director since Fuchs hired him in 2016.

He is experienced, respected in the industry and trusted by the Florida Board of Trustees. He also has a close relationship with Fuchs, who would ultimately decide on his future together with the Board of Trustees.

Stricklin is under pressure because of Napier’s hiring, which came after the tenure of Dan Mullen, who was strong for three seasons and fell apart in his fourth year. Mullen was fired with a 5-6 record that season. (Mullen, now an ESPN analyst, won 69.4% of his games at Florida and played for the SEC title in his third year. Napier has won 42.9% of his games and was under .500 in the SEC in his first two years.)

Will Stricklin get to hire the next coach? That’s one of the biggest variables hanging over the dynamic at Florida. It’s rare for athletic directors, especially in the SEC, to hire three new football coaches after firing the first two coaches. But don’t be surprised if Stricklin gets that chance.

It’s difficult for an interim president to hire an athletic director because the boss’s lack of knowledge could potentially limit the pool of candidates for the job. Stricklin has three years left on his contract, and if he were fired, he would be entitled to nearly $3 million.

Logistically, letting Stricklin go is a difficult decision for Florida. Can an interim president fire and hire a new athletic director in time to begin the coaching search in mid-November?

4. What impact do the expanded playoffs have on the search for a coach?

The way the college football schedule is shaping up will work against Florida. After missing out on an up-and-coming coach in Napier, who came from Louisiana, the natural inclination would be to hire the opposite. That would mean an established, well-known head coach with a big brand.

Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin will be the speculative favorite, as his penchant for free-flowing thought is similar to Steve Spurrier. His offensive skill brings some elements of Urban Meyer, who came to Florida when there was skepticism that spread offenses could work in the SEC. (They did.)

In addition to Kiffin, other prominent names mentioned include Penn State’s James Franklin, Nebraska’s Matt Rhule, Missouri’s Eliah Drinkwitz, Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and Kansas State’s Chris Klieman, all of whom currently coach highly ranked teams that could have a shot at the expanded College Football Playoff.

The new playoff dynamic is an interesting twist on the carousel. The new 12-team College Football Playoff begins on December 20, which would make it difficult for a school like Florida to hire a coach who makes the CFP. The ideal time to hire a new coach would be late November, as it takes time to evaluate a roster and figure out who is worth how much money.

The transfer portal opens on December 9, but by then most players have already found their next transfer. The first high school signing period begins on December 4. That’s a lot of important dates to miss waiting for a coach, especially considering the CFP National Championship is on January 20.

“The playoffs have thrown a wrench into the coaching carousel,” an industry source told ESPN. “Especially for places like Florida that can’t hire another Sun Belt coach. They need to land a big name.”

5. How good is Florida for a job?

This will be an interesting question discussed in the industry, as Florida has fired four coaches in a row and struggled to build a competitive SEC roster during the NIL era.

This is due in part to Napier’s loyalty to his program plan and attack strategy, which he has consistently maintained despite declining success.

There does indeed appear to be a significant financial outlay, as Napier has a huge staff and Florida’s new $85 million football facility will open in 2022 and is considered to be top-notch.

Internally, Florida views its NIL budget as one of the top 10 in the country and competitive with the SEC’s highest ranks, which it has proven with its recent recruiting successes, including the signing of ESPN’s top dual-threat quarterback in the country in the class of 2024, DJ Lagway, and top prospect defensive end LJ McCray.

The Florida job is a tumultuous one, as there are title winners like Meyer and Spurrier and then losers like Zook (23-14), Will Muschamp (28-21) and Jim McElwain (22-12). Frankly, they were all better than Napier, who is 12-16 and on pace to have the school’s worst full-time tenure in more than 70 years. There is a strong brand, league affiliation and recruiting base. But the roster doesn’t look like that of Florida’s counterparts in the SEC. Potential coaches will try to figure out what developed there to make that happen.