The No. 11 USC Trojans will have their first Big Ten matchup of the season when they travel to Ann Arbor on Saturday to face the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines in the Big House. The Trojans (2-0) are off to a good start, having already picked up a win over the No. 16 LSU Tigers in their season opener this season.

Meanwhile, things have been more difficult for the defending champion Wolverines. Michigan suffered a crushing loss to the No. 1 Texas Longhorns in Week 2, and quarterback Davis Warren struggled in last week’s Week 3 win over Arkansas State, throwing three interceptions. Warren’s performance prompted head coach Sherrone Moore to make a change at quarterback, bringing in dual-threat Alex Orji.

Can Orji boost Michigan’s offense and help them pull off an upset as a 5-point underdog?

Odds current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Spread: USC-5
Money line: UT (-210), Michigan (+175)
Over/Under: 43.5
Distribution of the first half: USC -3.5, Michigan +3.5
First half moneyline: USC (-180), Michigan (+140)

Pamela Maldonado’s tip of the game: Michigan (+5)

The USC Trojans have had the luxury of playing either at home or on a neutral site so far this season. This game will be USC’s first true away test in a hostile Big Ten environment. Michigan’s “Big House” is one of the toughest venues in college football. While the Wolverines’ offense has been a bit sluggish, a change at the quarterback position could give the team some needed momentum. With Alex Orji as the new starter, Michigan will likely rely heavily on its running game. Orji has shown the ability to make big strides on both designed running plays and botched plays. In just 10 running attempts, Orji has gained over 10 yards four times. His ability to run two offenses at once could allow for more variety in plays and potentially improve Michigan’s offensive performance, which has been disappointing in the early weeks of the season.

Add to that the emergence of running back Kalel Mullings, who is solidifying Michigan’s running game. While Donovan Edwards was expected to be a workhorse, Mullings has emerged as Michigan’s best running back, driving in 15 runs in two of three games to start the season. Edwards remains the home run hitter, but Mullings is the one who will wear down the defense. That ball control could help keep USC’s high-powered offense off the field and limit scoring opportunities.

USC still struggles with its run defense. In the season opener against LSU, the Trojans allowed 4.5 yards per carry, suggesting they still have room to improve at stopping the run. They currently rank 27th in rushing yards allowed, up from 117th last year, but 82nd in PFF’s run defense grade. That tells me that while USC’s raw stats for rushing yards look good, PFF’s more detailed analysis suggests their run defense may not be as strong as the yardage rankings suggest.

Let’s see if the Trojans can maintain their performance for 60 minutes against Michigan’s relentless running game. Michigan is the underdog at home.

Betting trends

• This is the first time Michigan has been a home underdog twice in one season since 2010. It is the first time Michigan has been a home underdog twice in the same season as a ranked team since the FBS and FCS split in 1978.

• Michigan is 5-1 ATS against ranked teams, second only to the team since the start of last season.

• Michigan is an underdog for the second time in the last three games. In the previous 32 games, they were underdogs only twice.

• USC has been a road favorite since the start of last season, going 0-3 ATS.

• USC has a 1-7 ATS record in their last eight games as a road favorite against a seeded opponent.

Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info.

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