The final month of this season was often not a pleasant one for the Orioles and their fans, as the team hit a major pothole in the form of a weak offense. The O’s scoring 24 runs in 12 games should be a concern for everyone in Birdland as things come to a close. Still, the Orioles enter this weekend’s series against the Tigers with a chance to secure a postseason berth and possibly even clinch the home berth for the wild-card round.

As things currently stand, the Tigers, who the Orioles play this weekend, are the team whose losses shrink the magic number. The Tigers and Twins are tied for the third wild card spot in the standings, with the Twins holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. That magic number of Orioles wins plus Tigers losses is 5. If the Orioles win, they are guaranteed a postseason spot and have a near chance of hosting the wild card round. If they win two of three, that magic number is down to just 1.

That’s the mathematical possibility. We all know that the Orioles, the way they’ve played this month, can’t win three games against anyone, no matter how good or bad the other team is or has played. They haven’t won a series against a team currently above .500 in more than two months. The problem is the offense, or lack thereof. The O’s have averaged 3.56 runs per game for the month, with a team OPS of .658. That’s not good.

As far as mathematical possibilities go, the Orioles could also be eliminated from the division race this weekend if they are the team that gets swept instead and the Yankees manage a sweep of the Athletics themselves.

The lack of offensive power was evident last weekend when these teams faced off in Detroit. The Orioles scored six runs in three games and lost 1-0 and 4-2. The 1-0 loss was particularly ugly because the O’s nearly became the first team to have a combined perfect game against them and only avoided a combined no-hitter thanks to Gunnar Henderson’s ninth-inning triple with two outs. No wonder this team has won only four of its last 13 games.

In the previous series, the Tigers successfully used the “opener and friends” strategy. At the time of this writing, no starting pitcher has been announced for either the Friday or Sunday games of the series, so it looks like Detroit will resort to the same strategy.

Why wouldn’t they? This is what unbalanced the Orioles’ flagging offense last time, and they can hope it happens again. Although the O’s are getting reinforcements now that Ramón Urías and Jordan Westburg have begun rehab, this probably won’t affect the next three games.

In this series, just like the last one, the Orioles are fortunate to avoid likely AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The O’s weren’t able to take advantage of that last time. We’ll see if they can do differently in the final home series of the regular season this weekend.

Game 1: Friday, 7:05 a.m. Eastern Time

Note: This game will be broadcast via video streaming only on Apple TV+. It will not be broadcast on MASN. Radio coverage on the Orioles Radio Network will not be affected.

• BAL Starter: Corbin Burnes – 30 GS, 3.06 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 1.119 WHIP
• DET starter: None announced

Burnes pitched in the last series against the Tigers and looked a lot like the dominant Burnes we all hoped the Orioles would be when they signed him in February. In that game, Burnes pitched seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and only two hits and one walk. It was a great outing that continued the September rebound after a dismal August for Burnes. If he can come through again, the weekend will start off well.

In all likelihood, this is the second-to-last regular season start for Burnes. The poor results in August knocked him out of the running for a second Cy Young Award. His overall season performance suggests he’s still a pretty good pitcher, but he’s also been on a steady downward trajectory since winning the Cy three years ago. Going into the 2024 season, Burnes’ strikeout rate has dropped again while his hits allowed rate has increased.

Is Burnes the starter in Game 1 for the Orioles, who is likely to enter as a wild card? Would you put Zach Eflin ahead of him? Either pitcher could be lined up as a starter in either game; Eflin and Burnes will both be lined up for next week’s series against the Yankees, their final starts of the regular season, and that means they’ll be rested for the postseason series as well.

Game 2: Saturday, 4:05 p.m. Eastern Time

• BAL Starters: Cade Povich – 14 GS, 5.74 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 1.536 WHIP
• DET Starter: Reese Olson – 20 GS, 3.50 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.206 WHIP

In his first nine starts this season, Olson had a 2.16 ERA and a 0-5 record. That’s not just because the Tigers were a bad team in April or May. They went 17-13 in March/April, although they fell below .500 by the end of May. Olson, 25, has pitched quite well this season, despite missing a couple of months with a shoulder strain.

This will be only Olson’s second start since returning from the IL, having lasted just 2.2 innings in the previous one. In his second MLB season, Olson has a career ERA that we would rather have seen for Grayson Rodriguez.

Povich also pitched in the last series against the Tigers. It was a decent five innings in which he allowed two runs, two hits and two walks. Povich also struck out eight batters. That was good. He still had to accept the loss. If he can pitch at least as well in this series, the Orioles at least have a chance to win the game. It depends on the offense.

Game 3: Sunday, 1:35 Eastern

• BAL Starter: Albert Suárez – 30 G/22 GS, 3.60 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 1.321 WHIP
• DET starter: None announced

Suárez has been an entertaining story this season and he could be the best choice to start Game 3 of a wild card series if they are in the first round and that series goes the full distance. In that case, it would be nice to see Suárez rebound a bit, as he has two September flops on his stat sheet towards the end of the season. He was given up by the White Sox for six runs in 4.1 innings and by the Giants for four runs in 3.1 innings.

The Orioles were beaten in both games, combining a typical weakness on offense with that poor pitching. It was something of a gift for the Orioles that Suárez had so many good starts. Thirty-four-year-old players who last pitched in the MLB seven years ago don’t show up very often and post ERAs in the mid-3s. Their chances of getting to the postseason and advancing will increase if Suárez can make at least three more good starts, starting with a better performance against the Tigers here in this series finale.

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There are nine games left in the Orioles’ regular season, and this series represents a third of the games remaining. If they play well, they could pull out the win. If they play poorly, they could be close to losing their current spot, and there remains a risk of elimination altogether. The O’s can’t control what happens to the Yankees, Twins, or Royals this weekend, but they can control what happens to themselves and the Tigers.