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Giants Series Preview: The Last Home Series of the Year
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Giants Series Preview: The Last Home Series of the Year

The Giants won three titles in the 2010s, including the 2014 World Series against the Royals, but have had just one winning season since 2016 – a 107-win disappointment in the 2021 postseason. They have also been overshadowed by their rivals, the all-powerful Dodgers.

They entered this season with hopes of competing with the ninth-largest payroll in baseball and investments in free agents like Jung Ho Lee, Jorge Soler, Jordan Hicks, Matt Chapman and two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell. But they’ve been a pretty mediocre team all season, trading Soler midway through the season and losing many key players to injuries. Of the 25 players who made the Giants’ opening game roster, only 14 will be available for the first game of this series. The disappointing season will likely cost manager Farhan Zaidi his job.

San Francisco Giants (74-79) vs. Kansas City Royals (82-71) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Giants: 4.25 runs scored/game (17th in MLB), 4.38 runs allowed/game (17th)

Royals: 4.69 runs scored/game (9th), 4.05 runs allowed/game (7th)

The Giants have lost 16 of their last 25 games, including a 32-inning scoreless streak. They are coming off a road win over the Baltimore Orioles, but have been a poor road team overall, with a 33-42 record.

Expected Giants starting lineup

Starting line-up P.A. Human Resources SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
Starting line-up P.A. Human Resources SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
RF Mike Yastrzemski (left) 443 17 3 .234 .310 .443 1.9
1B LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) 374 6 2 .264 .386 .371 1.4
LF Helio Ramos (R) 482 21 6 .266 .322 .466 2.0
DH Michael Conforto (L) 458 18 0 .234 .308 .441 1.1
SS Tyler Fitzgerald (R) 307 14 17 .293 .345 .516 3.2
C Patrick Bailey (S) 423 7 3 .234 .296 .337 4.1
CF Grant McCray (left) 99 5 5 .223 .263 .436 0.2
3B Casey Schmitt (R) 97 5 0 .226 .247 .430 0.0
2B Donovan Walton (L) 19 1 0 .118 .211 .294 -0.1
bank P.A. Human Resources SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
C Curt Casali (R) 114 1 0 .182 .277 .242 -0.5
IF Marco Luciano (R) 78 0 0 .219 .269 .315 -0.6
IF Brett Wisely (L) 252 3 2 .227 .268 .330 0.2
BY Mark Canha (R) 452 7 6 .237 .341 .341 0.8
BY Jerar Encarnacion (R) 98 4 1 .261 .296 .435 0

The Giants as a team have a .238 batting average and the 10th-lowest on-base percentage in baseball. Their .665 OPS with runners in scoring position is the fourth-worst in baseball. They have fared worse against right-handed hitters, posting a batting average of .232/.300/.383 against them, compared to .254/.322/.415 against left-handed hitters.

Matt Chapman is on paternity leave and could return this weekend – he leads the team with 24 home runs but has suffered 150 strikeouts. Tyler Fitzgerald has been a phenom since being recalled from the minors in early July, hitting .296/.346/.549 with 13 home runs in 56 games. Heliot Ramos is hitting .373/.444/.745 against lefties. LaMonte Wade Jr. has the third-best walk rate in baseball among hitters with 350 plate appearances.

Brett Wisely has struck out 7 in his last 60 games (.117). Patrick Bailey is hitting just .203/.279/.291 on the road. Only two teams have stolen fewer bases than the Giants. Bailey has thrown out 27 percent of potential base stealers and has the best pitch-framing metrics in baseball.

Expected pitching duels

Friday, September 20, 7:10 CT EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Friday, September 20, 7:10 CT EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Mason Schwarz 7.07 5.99 28.0 7.7 2.9 -0.3
RHP Michael Wacha 3.29 3.66 156.0 8.0 2.5 3.1
Saturday, September 21, 6:10 CT EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Landen Roupp 3.02 3.15 41.2 8.6 4.5 0.5
RHP Brady Singer 3.53 3.66 168.1 8.5 2.7 2.9
Sunday, September 22, 1:10 CT EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
LHP Blake Snell 3.31 2.54 98.0 12.5 4.0 2.7
RHP Seth Lugo 3.05 3.32 197.2 7.9 2.1 4.4

Mason Black is a rookie ranked No. 8 in the Giants’ farm system by MLB Pipeline who has had ups and downs this year. In 20 Triple-A starts, he posted a 4.59 ERA. He has never played more than five innings in an MLB start and has allowed one home run in each game. He throws a 92-mph fastball that opponents hit with a sinker, sweeper, slider and change-up to post a .343 batting average.

Landen Roupp has been a reliever for most of the year, but his last three games have been very long. In two starts, he has allowed just seven hits and two runs in 10 innings. He has yet to allow a run on the road, although that has only happened in eight appearances as a reliever. He throws a curveball 44 percent of the time with a whiff rate of 35.9 percent. He has a groundball rate of 47.3 and has allowed just one home run all year.

Blake Snell got off to a slow start but has returned to his Cy Young form since early July, with a 1.33 ERA and .125 opponents’ batting average in 13 starts. In his last outing against the Orioles, he allowed just one hit in six innings and struck out 12 hitters. Left-handed hitters are hitting just .109/.246/.236 against him this year. In four career starts against the Royals, he is 1-3 with a 7.27 ERA. He throws 95 mph with one of the best curves in the game.

Giants bullpen

Open-plan office EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Open-plan office EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Right-hander Ryan Walker 1.99 2.44 77.0 11.5 2.0 1.7
RHP Tyler Rogers 2.94 3.48 67.1 6.7 0.5 0.6
Left-hander Taylor Rogers 2.53 3.80 57.0 9.8 3.3 0.1
RHP Camilo Doval 5.17 3.86 54.0 11.8 6.0 0.0
LHP Erik Miller 3.50 3.67 64.1 11.5 4.8 0.4
Right-hander Jordan Hicks 4.10 4.38 109.2 7.9 3.9 0.5
RHP Sean Hjelle 3.86 3.76 77.0 8.3 1.6 0.2
RHP Tristan Beck 2.00 4.84 9.0 10.0 2.0 -0.1
RHP Spencer Bivens 2.89 4.93 43.2 6.2 2.1 -0.3

The Giants’ bullpen has a 4.01 ERA and the fourth-fewest blown saves in baseball. All-Star relief pitcher Camilo Doval, who led the league in saves last year, lost his role as closer and was demoted for a time. He has continued to struggle since his return, allowing nine runs in his final 10 innings.

Ryan Walker has been getting save opportunities lately and has the second-most appearances in the National League. The second-year pitcher has the 15th lowest ERA among qualified relievers with the fourth-best slider and a 33 percent strikeout rate. Erik Miller has 13 innings with 16 strikeouts. Left-handed hitters are hitting just .159/.275/.205 against him, striking out 38 percent of the time. Taylor Rogers has a reverse platoon split, with left-handed hitters hitting him much better than right-handed hitters. His twin brother Tyler Rogers has a 4.86 ERA on the road.

The Royals are still in a good position for the playoffs, but they need to win this series to feel better and not collapse in the home stretch. They will face inexperienced, ineffective pitchers in the first two games and an offense that has struggled recently. They can’t panic about a bad run of games, and if they can get back to the style of play that got them this far, they should be able to win the final home series of the year.

Opinion poll

How will the Royals fare in this series against the Giants?

  • 13%

    Royals win 3-0

    (20 votes)

  • 61%

    Royals win 2 of 3

    (88 votes)

  • 20%

    Giants win 2 of 3

    (29 votes)


143 votes in total

Vote now

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