All eyes remain on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, where there are increasing signs of possible tropical development in the region. The FOX Weather team is analyzing what Mother Nature may be up to.
The next tropical threat to the United States is brewing in the Caribbean, as signs are mounting that the ingredients for a tropical storm or even a hurricane are coming together.
Numerous computer models are predicting a strong tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. However, the forecasts are still subject to many uncertainties and several outcomes are possible.
The National Hurricane Center currently reports moderate chances for tropical development in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico within the next seven days. After seven days, development may continue, and those chances are likely to increase as the development window approaches, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
(FOX Weather)
“From Texas to Florida, the entire Gulf Coast is still at risk,” said Stephen Morgan, meteorologist at FOX Weather.
Create a weather puzzle
It will take a long time for the pieces of the puzzle to fit together.
There are strong indications that a weather pattern called the Central American Gyre will form in the coming days.
The vortex is a broad low-pressure system fed by moisture flowing in from the Pacific Ocean that forms near or over Central America. At its core, it is a powerful rain producer whose effects extend for hundreds of miles, threatening torrential rain, flooding and landslides in more than a dozen countries in and around Central America.
WHAT IS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN VORTEX?
However, organized low-pressure systems can develop into tropical storms or even hurricanes within the larger gyre if water temperatures and upper-level winds favor tropical development. Current water temperatures in the Caribbean are close to last season’s record highs.
The ultimate fate of tropical development will depend on where the vortex forms, how strong it becomes, and what atmospheric steering or blocking patterns occur in the southern United States.
There are four main scenarios that can be foreseen when assessing the development of weather data, with each scenario posing a greater threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Tropical Threat Scenario 1: Vortex formation but no tropical development
In this case, the atmospheric conditions coincide in such a way that the extensive low-pressure area brings rain to Central America, but the conditions are never right for individual low-pressure areas to form.
“This has the least impact in the mainland U.S., but that doesn’t say anything about what we might see in Central America,” Morgan said. “The vortex is also producing large amounts of rain, so we’re expecting heavy rainfall from Belize, Guatemala to Honduras and further south to Panama, Mexico, to rain alone.”
Tropical Threat Scenario 2: Weak low pressure system develops but is directed westward to Central America
If low pressure systems form on the northern and western boundaries of the vortex and a high pressure system solidifies over the southern United States, this would create a blockage over the Gulf and direct the storms toward Central America instead.
“That could lead to heavy rainfall there,” Morgan said. “That could also lead to mudslides and landslides.”
Tropical Threat Scenario 3: Low pressure area develops on the eastern side of the vortex, but in the Caribbean
In this case, a low pressure center could form on the eastern side of the vortex, but develop further south in the Caribbean.
Nevertheless, it could happen that a cyclone enters the Gulf of Mexico and threatens the coastal areas.
“Another steering mechanism that we’re watching very closely and the potential impacts of which we could potentially tie to a collapse in the jet stream,” said Kendall Smith, meteorologist at FOX Weather. “If that happens over the eastern United States, it might pull the system a little bit further north, which would be a bigger problem for people living right along the Gulf Coast.”
Tropical Threat Scenario 4: Tropical disturbances organize in the Gulf of Mexico
The worst-case scenario is that a low-pressure system forms in the Gulf of Mexico and then quickly develops into a hurricane due to record-high water temperatures.
Forecasts for evolving or disorganized systems are subject to large errors and significant changes.
“The computer forecasts that predict development over the warm waters of the Caribbean or the far southeastern Gulf show a tropical storm or hurricane moving northward that could impact the Gulf Coast somewhere between Louisiana and Florida late next week,” said FOX Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross. “Computer forecasts that develop the system over land or predict it will remain weak longer keep it closer to Mexico. They have it drifting in the western Gulf, blocked by the high to the north. It could still impact the Gulf Coast in some way, although it would appear to take longer to develop, pushing the threat further into the future.”
The weather pattern in the upper atmosphere is forecast to favor the development of tropical storms over Central America and surrounding waters next week.
We are still in the midst of hurricane season, so an organized tropical system is not unexpected. The western Caribbean and southern Gulf are always prime locations for tropical development in late September.
“This is one thing that everyone needs to have a little patience with, because nothing is going to develop quickly,” Norcross said. “We’re talking about the end of next week, and everyone from Texas to Florida needs to be watching this and being informed and seeing how it develops.”
