Putin is rattling his nuclear sabre. This time it seems to be different for Ukraine and NATO.
Over the course of the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has drawn several “red lines” but seemingly taken no action when those lines were crossed by Ukraine or its Western backers.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin warned last Thursday that Moscow would consider it a direct act of war by NATO if Ukraine used British, French or US missiles to attack targets deep inside Russia. And both he and Russian experts say this time things are different.
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The Kremlin has had little success using its nuclear arsenal to prevent Ukraine and the West from adopting new tactics and modern equipment to stop the Russian invasion. But that could change.
Putin distinguished the use of the types of weapons discussed – British, French and American missiles – from previous Red Line scenarios, saying that carrying out such weapons would require direct NATO support and satellite-based targeting and guidance to carry out effective strikes deep inside Russia.
It sounds as if this challenge is the straw that breaks the camel’s back for the Kremlin.
“Russia’s frustration is growing because the West seems to have lost all fear of nuclear war,” said Sergei Strokan, an international affairs columnist. “There is a growing feeling that the West needs some kind of wake-up call, an event that will make it realize that it is flirting with World War III.”
Over the course of the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has drawn several “red lines” – with demonstrative references to Russia’s vast strategic nuclear arsenal – but has seemingly done nothing when those lines have been crossed by Ukraine or its Western backers.
This happened when Ukraine acquired new and more powerful Western weapons. This happened when Kyiv used its own drones to attack Russian airfields, refineries, and even the Kremlin itself. Most recently, this happened when Ukrainian forces actually entered Russian territory. This has led Ukrainians and many NATO officials to conclude that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling is an elaborate bluff.
But when Putin warned last Thursday that Moscow would consider it a direct act of war by NATO if Ukraine used British, French or American missiles to attack targets deep inside Russia, he said this time things would be different.
Why we wrote this
A story about
The Kremlin has had little success using its nuclear arsenal to prevent Ukraine and the West from adopting new tactics and modern equipment to stop the Russian invasion. But that could change.
Many Russian experts share this opinion. And at the moment, Washington seems to be heeding its threat and not yet giving Ukraine permission to use these weapons.
“Russia’s frustration is growing because the West seems to have lost all fear of nuclear war. Deterrence is lacking,” says Sergei Strokan, international affairs columnist for the Moscow daily Kommersant. During the Cold War, he says, this fear drove both sides to the negotiating table with the goal of limiting conflict and controlling nuclear weapons.
“There is a growing feeling that the West needs some kind of wake-up call, an event that will make it realise that it is flirting with World War III if it escalates its attacks on Russia,” he says.
Deterrence and the war in Ukraine
Responding to a journalist’s question, Putin distinguished the use of the types of weapons under discussion – British and French cruise missiles and US ATACMS missiles – from previous Red Line scenarios, as he believed these weapons were too sophisticated to be used by the Ukrainians alone. He claimed they would need hands-on NATO support and satellite-based targeting and guidance to effectively carry out attacks deep inside Russia.
Sergeant First Class Andrew Dickson/US Army/AP/File
“This would mean that the NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia. And if that is the case, then, given the changed nature of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will arise against us,” Putin said.
The Kremlin appears to view this challenge as the last straw. For over a year, Putin has been under public pressure from warmongering members of his security elite, led by foreign policy dean Sergei Karaganov, to “restore deterrence” by staging a demonstration nuclear strike to remind the West that Russia is a nuclear superpower that should not be treated lightly.
It is unclear what response the Kremlin is considering, but the Russian media is abuzz with speculation.
At the mild end of the spectrum are measures such as breaking off diplomatic relations, particularly with the NATO country that Moscow considers the most actively hostile, namely Britain. Another idea would be to conduct a demonstration test of nuclear weapons, something Russia has not done since 1990. According to some reports, the old Soviet nuclear test site in the Arctic at Novaya Zemlya is already prepared for this eventuality.
Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, says a stronger response could be an attack on NATO airfields in Poland and Romania. “We know that Ukrainian F-16s are based there. These planes would probably be used to fire NATO missiles at us, so we would consider them legitimate targets.”
Upcoming changes to Russia’s official nuclear doctrine could fundamentally change the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons.
At present, Russia would only be prepared to use nuclear weapons if the country were attacked by a nuclear power using such weapons or if the existence of the Russian state were threatened in the course of a conventional conflict.
Press service of the Russian Defense Ministry/AP/File
According to Markov, the changes being considered would lower the barrier to the use of tactical nuclear weapons and potentially make them an integral part of any future battlefield.
Another amendment could change the requirement that Russian statehood be at risk to allow the weapons to be used instead when Russian “strategic interests” are threatened. This would also allow their use against non-nuclear states that are part of a coalition that includes nuclear powers if they attack Russia.
Fear of nuclear war
According to Alexei Levinson, an expert at the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent polling institute, fear of a nuclear conflict among the Russian population has risen from around a quarter of respondents to over a third since the beginning of the Ukraine war.
“In our focus groups, we found that it is the second biggest fear, after concern for one’s own well-being and that of one’s immediate family,” he says. “Since the start of the special operation, this fear has intensified and is at a consistently high level.”
One of Russia’s leading security experts, Alexei Arbatov, told the daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta this week that the development of events was very dangerous because there was a widespread belief in the West that Russia would never use nuclear weapons.
“This is a serious mistake: nuclear weapons will be used at some point, despite the risk of escalation and general catastrophe,” he said.
Strokan argues that Western observers fail to recognize the extent to which Putin is under pressure from hawks to his right, such as nuclear strike advocate Karaganov.
“Putin is probably the most moderate politician in Moscow at the moment, and if it weren’t for him, we would probably have a collective Karaganov in power,” he says. “They are already openly expressing their impatience and asking: ‘Why haven’t we pressed the button yet?'”
