There is even a chance we may get a coastal flood warning because of the persistent north-easterly winds. I am not expecting anything more than minor coastal flooding, but those of you who are on the coast at high tide this weekend should bear this in mind. High tides on Saturday are at 1:58am and 2:17pm, and on Sunday at 2:52am and 3:08pm.

Saturday

The problem with the forecast will be the low pressure that is moving east of New England and how close the precipitation field will get to southern New England on Saturday. Some models are keeping Boston and the areas north and west dry for now, but others are bringing the rain to the area between I-495 and Route 128.

While I know many of you have plans, the rain would be much appreciated. In fact, there are signs of even heavier rain over Cape Cod and the islands, with some models predicting over 2 inches of rainfall for that area.

The situation is delicate and you should therefore check the current weather forecast over the next few days as it may change. If it rains on Saturday, it should stop during the day.

Sunday

Fall begins at 8:43 a.m. EST on Sunday morning, marking the halfway point between summer and winter. From now on, you can expect dry weather and temperatures around 59°F on Sunday afternoon and between 46°F and 50°F at sunrise.

Cooler temperatures

Because this weather system originates in eastern Canada, it contains seasonally cool air. This means that temperatures this weekend will be near or even below seasonal normals – 15 degrees – rather than the 27 degrees we have become accustomed to.

If Saturday and Sunday stay dry, it will be a great weekend for apple picking, pumpkin patching, and other fall activities. This is especially true the farther north and west you go, where the chance of rain on Saturday is very low.

It’s still a bit of time before the foliage gets really interesting, but local farms are definitely busy right now, and with the cooler weather it will be pleasant all day. Keep in mind that crowds are at their peak between 11am and 4pm, so it helps if you can get to a farm when it opens or just before it closes.

Sunrise and sunset are getting closer and closer together. This weekend, the sun will rise around 6:30 a.m. and the sun will set around 6:40 p.m. – that’s almost a 12-hour day.

The bottom line is that the forecast for the coming weekend is challenging. For those of you on the Cape and Islands, it looks pretty wet, especially on Saturday. For those of you further inland, it looks sunny both days, but in the middle, including the Greater Boston area, that’s the tough part of the forecast, so stay tuned.

Weekend breakdown

Southern New England: Cloudy skies with a chance of rain are expected on Saturday, especially south of Boston. On Sunday, the sky should be partly sunny again. A gusty northeast wind will blow along the coast. Temperatures will be between 15 and 20 degrees.

Western Massachusetts: On both days the sky will be mostly to partly sunny with temperatures around 15 degrees. It will be cool in the morning, with temperatures rising to over 7 degrees shortly after sunrise. The sun will shine more on Sunday than on Saturday.

Cape and Islands: This weekend, cloudy skies are expected and Saturday could be quite wet as the low pressure system approaches. Depending on the path of the storm, there could be heavy rain in places and gusty winds could even cause minor flooding on the coast at high tide. Temperatures will be between 15 and 20 degrees.

Northern New England: Temperatures will start at 7 to 9 degrees in the morning and reach 18 to 20 degrees in the afternoon, with alternating cloudy and sunny temperatures. It will remain dry all weekend.

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