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Analysis of Shohei Ohtani’s historic 50/50 season
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Analysis of Shohei Ohtani’s historic 50/50 season

Add it to the list of baseball’s most magical numbers: Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, Ted Williams’ .406 batting average, Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA, Nolan Ryan’s seven no-hitters … Shohei Ohtani’s 50/50 season.

And he did it as only Ohtani could: with perhaps the greatest individual performance in major league history, and certainly in Los Angeles Dodgers history. Ohtani hit 6-of-6 home runs, 5 extra-base hits, 2 stolen bases and 10 RBIs to reach 51 home runs and 51 stolen bases on Thursday afternoon in Miami. Marlins fans honored baseball history with a curtain call for his 50th home run — and then another for his 51st.

Absolute goosebumps moments.

First, Ohtani became the first player in Major League history with multiple home runs, multiple stolen bases, and five hits in a game (he also had seven RBIs at the time). When he third With his home run in the ninth inning, he became only the second player with six hits and five extra-base hits in a game, tying former Dodgers outfielder Shawn Green (Ohtani also broke Green’s club record of 49 home runs on Thursday). And Ohtani is the first player with five extra-base hits and 10 RBIs in a game.

Totally wild.

He hit his home runs in consecutive at-bats: a 438-footer into the upper deck in the sixth inning, a 391-footer into the opposite field in the seventh for No. 50, and then an absurd 440-footer in the ninth.

“He’s one of a kind,” Dodgers teammate Kevin Kiermaier recently told ESPN’s “Sunday Night Baseball” crew.

As he has done so many times before, Ohtani has once again made the impossible a reality. How did we get here? Let’s look at some numbers from his 50/50 season and his entire career to help us understand what we’re witnessing.


Analysis of Ohtani’s 50/50 campaign

How did he get 50 home runs?

Mostly with great consistency throughout the entire season. Here are some numbers:

  • He hit 51 home runs against 50 different pitchers.

  • He now has a three-home run game, in addition to two two-home run games – on May 5 against the Atlanta Braves and on June 16 against the Kansas City Royals, both at home.

  • He hit 26 of his 51 home runs at Dodger Stadium.

  • His longest streak of consecutive games with a home run is three, which he accomplished twice.

  • His longest stretch without a home run was nine games in late May.

  • His best period was from June 11 to July 2, when he hit 12 home runs in 19 games.

  • He hit 27 home runs, 18 to center field and six to opposite field.

Perhaps most impressively, he leads the majors with nine home runs over 450 feet (three more than Aaron Judge). That’s the third-most home runs over 450 feet in a season since 2006 (Giancarlo Stanton had 13 in 2017; Judge had 10 that same year). Since reaching the majors in 2018, Ohtani is tied with Acuna with 22 home runs over 450 feet and with Judge with 78 home runs over 425 feet.

Ohtani’s home runs are powerful, majestic and absolutely magnificent. His arms hold the bat outstretched as he begins a swing that Dodgers commentator Joe Davis executes with “graceful violence.” He finishes the swing with incredible power in his hips and legs that hardly resembles the effortless swing of a Ken Griffey Jr. – but is just as effective.

How did he get 50 stolen bases?

Well, for one thing, it took a lot of strategy and preparation. But it also required an impressive combination of aggressiveness and efficiency. With 51 steals in 55 attempts, it is the third highest percentage of stolen bases in a season with 50 steals:

  • Max Carey, 1922: 51 out of 53 (96.23%)

  • Jacoby Ellsbury, 2013: 52 out of 56 (92.96%)

  • Ohtani, 2024: 51 out of 55 (92.73%)

  • Corbin Carroll, 2023: 54 of 59 (91.53%)

  • Jerry Mumphrey, 1980: 52 of 57 (91.23%)


How impressive is his 50/50 season?

Before Ohtani did it in the same season, only two players had ever hit 50 home runs And have stolen 50 bases at some point in their careers – Barry Bonds and Brady Anderson.

In fact, before Ohtani, 31 different players had hit 50 home runs in a season 49 times; they averaged just 7.4 stolen bases in those seasons. The most stolen bases in a 50-home run season were 24 times by Willie Mays and Alex Rodriguez. Before Ohtani, a player had stolen 50 bases in a season 241 times (since the Lively Ball era began in 1920); they averaged just 8.4 home runs in those seasons. Only three times did a player even hit 30 home runs in a 50-stolen-base season (Ronald Acuna Jr., Eric Davis, and Bonds).

In baseball terms, it’s like Roald Amundsen reaching the South Pole, Charles Lindbergh crossing the Atlantic, or Neil Armstrong landing on the moon. An impossible feat made possible by the most impossible player of all time.

Freed from the burden of pitching this season as he recovered from elbow surgery, Ohtani started off full steam ahead at the plate – hitting 14 home runs by the end of May and 12 more in June. Then he began to devote some of his energy to stealing more bases, a pace that picked up in late June when manager Dave Roberts moved him to the first batter position.

In July, he stole 12 bases, giving him 28. The race was on to become not only the sixth member of the 40/40 club, but also the first of the 50/50 club. Similar to Thursday, Ohtani hit his 40th home run and stole his 40th base in the same game on Aug. 23 – and won it with a dramatic two-out walk-off home run that sent Dodger Stadium into a frenzy and required a final postgame round of applause.

“I think he wants to be the best player to ever play the game,” Roberts said after the game. “And when you start doing things like that, you’ve certainly staked your claim.”

Ohtani ranks second in the Major Leagues this season in both home runs (behind Judge) and stolen bases (behind Elly De La Cruz).

The last player to be in the top two in both categories? Ty Cobb, back in 1909, when he led the majors with nine home runs and 78 stolen bases. The only other player to do that since 1901 was Honus Wagner the year before. Those are two players from the dead-ball era. Now Ohtani is only three home runs behind Judge for the major league lead—and I wouldn’t put it past him to catch Judge before the season is out.

One player who never did that was Willie Mays. He led the National League in home runs four times and in stolen bases four times, but never in the same season. He also achieved a career-high 40 steals. Stolen bases weren’t such a big part of the game early in Mays’ career, and there are many anecdotes of him saying that when Jose Canseco had his first 40/40 season in 1988, Mays would have done it himself if he had known it was going to be a big deal.

But he never had a 40/40 season, let alone a 50/50 season. He never had to put his body through the physical strain of stealing that many bases. Ohtani is, once again, one of a kind.

Ohtani’s combination of power and speed is one of the best ever this season.

To put this top-2 ranking into perspective, here are the rankings of the previous five members of the 40/40 Club in each category:

  • Canseco, 1988: 42 HR (first), 40 SB (twelfth)

  • Bonds, 1996: 42 HR (ninth), 40 SB (eighth)

  • Alex Rodriguez, 1998: 42 HR (12th), 46 SB (6th)

  • Alfonso Soriano, 2006: 46 HR (fourth), 41 SB (tenth)

  • Acuna, 2023: 41 HR (fifth), 73 SB (1st)

When looking at this list, Acuna’s last season stands out. When applying Bill James’ power/velocity number, which combines the two numbers to form the harmonic mean, Acuna’s year ranks as the best ever, and Ohtani isn’t far behind:

Was Acuna’s season more impressive? I would argue a defiant “no.” Reaching 50 home runs is the harder task, and Acuna fell far short. As we mentioned, there have been many more 50-steal seasons than 50-home run seasons. And while it’s been a little easier to steal bases the last two seasons because of the rule changes, stolen bases are essentially the same as they were in the 1990s.

Oh, and Ohtani’s season isn’t over yet. He should surpass Acuna’s total anyway.


Why even 50/50 shouldn’t be a surprise

Ohtani’s historic 2024 season is not an isolated incident in his career. He is no stranger to making history.

In 2021, he became the first player in MLB history to have more than 10 home runs and 100 strikeouts in a season—and he did it again in the next two seasons (easily surpassing both marks in all three years), capping off one of the most amazing three-year stretches we’ve ever seen.

In 2022, he finished 11th in the major leagues in home runs and 6th in strikeouts as a pitcher, making him the first player to rank that high in those categories since Grasshopper Jim Whitney in 1883 (back when the throwing distance to home plate was 50 feet). He had his best season yet in 2023 until he re-injured his elbow, requiring another surgery. Through August 9, he led the majors in home runs (40) and OPS (1.076), while ranking fourth in strikeouts and seventh in ERA.

Ohtani hit 124 home runs from 2021-2024 – the fourth-most in the major leagues during that span. As a pure hitter, he amassed 14.3 WAR, tied with Corey Seager and Bo Bichette for 17th among outfielders. As a pitcher, his 2.84 ERA ranked third among those with at least 400 innings pitched and ranked fifth with 14.2 WAR. He won American League MVP awards in 2021 and 2023 – both unanimously, making him the first player to do so twice.

My colleague Jeff Passan wrote, “In a game where players hit or pitch, he does both — and to say so so bluntly understates his excellence in both areas. He is the most talented baseball player in the game’s century-and-a-half history.”

Then there’s his historic free agency — the $700 million contract with the Dodgers. A 473-foot home run in July that blew out the right-center field outfield seats at Dodger Stadium. The walk-off grand slam to get to 40/40. His dog Decoy delivering the best first pitch of the season and Ohtani waiting at home plate with a smile as wide as Chavez Ravine. And now 50/50.

One of one.

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