The Detroit Tigers’ 10-inning win in Kansas City on Tuesday night was exhilarating. A loss would have felt catastrophic.
Get ready to experience this feeling over and over again for the rest of September.
The Tigers (79-73) are no longer just fringe players in the race for the playoffs. They are right in the middle of it. But each of the last 10 games will have a decisive impact on their playoff hopes.
When the Minnesota Twins (80-71) defeated the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday while the Tigers were still battling the Royals, the players felt the pressure to win and keep up.
This is the state of affairs before the games on Wednesday:
WILD CARD STANDARDS
| team | Wins | losses | Games behind it |
|---|---|---|---|
| City | 82 | 70 | +1.5 |
| Minnesota | 80 | 71 | — |
| TIGER | 79 | 73 | 1.5 |
| Seattle | 77 | 74 | 3 |
| Boston | 75 | 76 | 5 |
(The complete ranking can be found here)
With both the Tigers and Twins winning on Tuesday night, the Mariners were not allowed to lose ground again. Instead, they were crushed by the New York Yankees, 11-2.
The Royals are still in a comfortable position compared to the Twins and Tigers.
But that could change quickly if the Tigers complete a sweep on Wednesday and the Twins pick up a few more wins against the Guardians.
Despite their late-season struggles, the Twins win the tiebreaker in virtually all scenarios, including head-to-head matches against the Tigers and Royals.
Even if they sweep the Royals on Wednesday, the Tigers would come up short in most scenarios: They would lose a tiebreaker to the Royals, a tiebreaker to the Twins, and would be eliminated if they were tied in a three-way matchup with KC and Minn for the last two wild-card spots.
These hurdles are factored into the forecasts, which remain cautious on the Tigers despite their late resurgence.
CURRENT PLAYOFF CHANCES (last two wildcard spots)
| team | PECOTA | Fangraphs |
|---|---|---|
| City | 91.5 percent | 93 |
| Minnesota | 78.3 | 82.3 |
| TIGER | 23.6 | 21.2 |
| Seattle | 7.1 | 4.4 |
| Boston | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Note: Totals exceed 200 percent because the Royals, Twins and Mariners still have a very slim chance of winning their divisions.
Boston is on the verge of falling out of contention entirely, but they host Minnesota this weekend for a three-game series. The Red Sox could help the Tigers even if they can’t help themselves.
The Tigers will play one more game in Kansas City, followed by a three-game series in Baltimore, before closing the season with a six-game homestand against the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox.
