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Forecast: This stock will be Warren Buffett’s top performer by 2030
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Forecast: This stock will be Warren Buffett’s top performer by 2030

This stock was a big, unnoticed winner for Buffett and still has room to grow.

Everyone knows Warren Buffett’s monster Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) Investment. The huge hundred-billion-dollar winner – which Buffett recently cut – is repeatedly cited as one of the Berkshire-HathawayThe best investment. However, the investment has been held for less than 10 years, while Buffett has been investing for more than 60 years.

Buffett bought and held American Express (AXP 1.85%) many years longer than Apple. And yet few people talk about this huge, successful investment. Although the stock has risen more than tenfold since Buffett’s first purchase, shares still look cheap today. Here’s why American Express is poised to take the market again and can be Buffett’s top performer by 2030.

American Express: One of Buffett’s favorite brands

American Express operates one of the few credit card networks worldwide. Unlike other networks such as visa And MasterCardAmerican Express acts as a bank and actually issues its own credit cards, vertically integrating digital payments, making American Express unique in the credit card world.

The company serves a wealthier clientele and has built a premium brand that has been refined over decades. It offers credit cards with high fees, such as the American Express Platinum Card, which has a $695 annual fee. People are willing to pay those fees for the high travel benefits, cash back offers, and other perks of the American Express ecosystem. In a classic network effect, it would be virtually impossible to disrupt and replace American Express in the payments ecosystem, making it a company with a wide moat.

Buffett loves top brands like American Express, Apple and Coca-Cola. It’s no surprise, then, that Berkshire Hathaway still owns over 20% of the company. The company made its first investment in 1991. Since then, American Express has delivered a total return of nearly 8,000%, which is better than Coca-Cola over the same period.

Growing number of card members, increasing international acceptance

About 10 years ago, American Express went through a difficult period. The company was struggling to attract new customers and lost a major contract for the Costco Wholesale Credit card partnership.

Since then, the company has gotten back on track under new leadership. The total number of cardholders is growing again, and has been for several years. Last quarter, the company added 3.3 million new cards, up from 3 million in the same quarter last year. New cards are the lifeblood of American Express’s business, so it’s great to see new customers on the platform. Over the next few decades, these customers should add tremendous value to American Express’s business as these wealthy customers use these cards to make purchases and pay the high annual fees.

To sustain this growth, American Express is investing heavily in increasing the number of locations that accept American Express card payments. This is the other lifeblood of the payments business. If a merchant doesn’t accept your credit card as payment, you’re not making money because shoppers can’t use their cards to pay. Since 2017, the company has quadrupled its international acceptance locations, which will lead to even more payments growth in the coming years. In the United States, it now has virtual acceptance parity with Visa and Mastercard.

AXP P/E Chart

AXP PE ratio data from YCharts

Buy this ultimate dividend booster and never sell it again

By increasing card fees, payment volume, international acceptance and more credit card loans, American Express believes it can grow its revenue by 10% annually over the long term. Management believes earnings per share (EPS) can grow even faster.

This growth will give American Express plenty of room to increase its dividend payments, if management agrees. The stock currently has a dividend yield of 1.23%, which seems pretty low. But the stock isn’t crazy expensive, trading at a below-market price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17. Over the past 10 years, American Express’s dividend per share has grown 165%.

If revenue and earnings continue to grow by 10% or more, I think the stock can more than double its dividend per share again by 2030. Combined with a low starting valuation, I think American Express can be Buffett’s best-performing stock from now through 2030.

American Express is a promotional partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Brett Schafer does not own any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool holds positions in and recommends Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Mastercard, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2025 $370 calls on Mastercard and short January 2025 $380 calls on Mastercard. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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