I have a lot of feelings about last night’s game, and most of them aren’t great. Still, I can’t help but be optimistic about Chicago’s future. Lost in all the excitement about the Bears is the undeniable fact that the Houston Texans are a damn good football team, made the playoffs last season, and have one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Plus, the Bears lost by one point on Sunday Night Football in their building last night. For all the correctable and even the ugly, that fact alone left me only slightly disappointed with last night’s outcome.
The good thing about the Bears’ loss to the Houston Texans
Caleb Williams (sometimes)
You can hate on that if you want, but I don’t care. Caleb Williams did some good things last night, and if I’m going to criticize him for the things he did poorly (and I do), then I’m going to shine a light on what he did well. This isn’t a film study (that’s coming tomorrow), but I rewatched the game this morning in the All-22 format, so this isn’t just my gut feeling based on watching live last night.
Obviously, the coaching staff wants Williams to play structured, and that’s fine. He showed last night that he’s capable of doing that, and his video at USC shows it enough. But for that game plan to work, the offensive line has to be significantly better.
Williams was pressured on 11 dropbacks in under 2.5 seconds on Sunday night and was sacked seven times. Why is 2.5 seconds important? That’s the projected time a route should take to clear. Williams threw the football under that threshold, completing 15 of 18 for 95 yards. That’s good for a CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) of +4.2 percent.
When he had the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, he completed 8 of 19 for 79 yards and two interceptions (-11.2% CPOE).
You can argue about depth of targets until you run out of steam, but this isn’t a Williams problem, it’s a (Bears OC) Shane Waldron problem. The plays remain mysterious and have even taken a step back this week.
DJ Moore
Moore is the best wide receiver in Chicago for a reason; he’s damn good. Last night he caught six passes for 53 yards and was targeted 10 times. I said last week that he needed to be a focal point in the offense against the Texans, and Waldron got it halfway right. He was a key part of the game plan, but a lot of that plan was Moore getting the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage and being expected to make an impact in the open field.
Fifty-two of Moore’s 53 receiving yards came after the catch. Using him as a ball carrier out of the backfield or in the screen game is fine in moderation. Let’s take some deeper looks at him in the future. Even if it’s just to create space in the middle of the field for another route, pulling the safety or a zone corner away from the space between the has mark and the boundary for an out route or one of the middle route options that Waldron seems to be obsessed with.
The defense
Nothing to say here other than give these men their flowers. They were a little flaky early on when the Texans were scoring most of their points and Nico Collins was looking like Terrell Owens, but they made the adjustments on the fly and held one of the most talented offenses in football to 19 points in their building. That’s a winning performance that will become the norm for this unit.
The special teams
If we never see Velus Jones Jr. again, that’s OK. DeAndre Carter did a great job in the return game, and if Khalil Herbert gets just two touches out of the backfield, he can contribute there too – just food for thought. Cairo Santons was perfect, and Tory Taylor did a great job of moving the field all night.
The bad
Caleb Williams (sometimes)
Like I said, if Williams had the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, things got dicey for the rookie quarterback. He missed some throws downfield and forced a couple of passes, two of which were intercepted. Last week, Williams did nothing to lose the game for the Bears. This week, he did it despite having no help around him. I would have liked to have seen Williams stick to the game plan and protect the ball in the second half. Instead, he applied pressure, and it didn’t work out.
That’s what happens when you keep getting pressured. Houston blitzed Williams on 41.7 percent of his dropbacks, which was the highest blitz rate in a game under DeMeco Ryans. The blueprint for opposing teams is there, and Ryans has leaned on it. Until that offensive line is better, everyone will increase their blitz numbers when Chicago is on the schedule.
D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift carried the ball 14 times last night for 18 yards, which works out to 1.3 yards per carry. Swift’s longest run of the night was seven yards, meaning he only gained 11 yards on his other 13 runs, and I’ll spare you the math on what the clip per attempt looks like here.
I’ll put it this way: Waldron’s determination to keep running the ball outside when the offensive line was late to their block because of the noise and the silent snap count all night did Swift no favors. Still, he was terrible. You can’t tell me Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson couldn’t have done that for a lot less money.
Rome Odunze
I dare say it’s rare that I give someone a drastically different grade than they originally received when I re-evaluate my instant grades mid-week. Most of the time, the tape provides much-needed context to things I already believed to be correct, but sometimes it shows us something completely different. Rome Odunze’s performance last night and my initial grade will be one of those exceptions to the rule.
To Rome’s credit, he hung in there and played most of the snaps, not to mention his MCL sprain, but he could have taken the night off. He dropped a touchdown in the end zone that was totally catchable upon review, and he wasn’t able to create much yardage all game, which could be due to his knee injury, but if that’s the case, he shouldn’t have played.
The Ugly
Shane Waldron
I’m not ready to pack his bags for Shane Waldron yet, but I’m pretty close, and that’s saying something after two games.
As I said, Sunday night’s plays were somehow worse than Week 1 against the Titans. Looking back on the Tennessee game is absolutely off limits. In my Caleb Williams film study last week, I gave Waldron credit for doing things that played to Williams’ strengths (e.g., bare boots, rollouts, etc.). This week, that all went out the window.
DJ Moore’s route package was wrong. Cole Kmet was more involved than last week (easy barrier to overcome) but still not as involved as he should be and I’ll be glad if I never see Gerald Everett again. Why are we forcing Gerald Everett to target when we have a top 10 tight end on the roster? Also, I’d love to hear Waldron’s explanation on the Everett screen from a three-by-one formation on the outside.
Shane Waldron has been a huge disappointment so far. While I still hope he finds his rhythm in the next few weeks, his first two appearances as an offensive playmaker in Chicago have definitely disappointed me.
The Offensive Line
I have already quoted the blitz and pressure percentages and success rates from Sunday’s loss to Houston, so there is no point in repeating them. The offensive line is a significant problem, and Bears GM Ryan Poles has to be on the phone trying to get outside help.
Matt Eberflus’ game management
Matt Eberflus is an excellent defensive playmaker and seems to have a good presence in the locker room, but he leaves a lot to be desired in pretty much every other area. He has no understanding of what an NFL offense should look like and last night’s play-calling was atrocious.
