Donald Trump doesn’t need to win over MAGA, but Kamala Harris needs to work to win the votes of all Democrats within the coalition. Her victory in the debate can help.
Voters react to the Trump-Harris debate: What issues stood out?
The first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris saw numerous clashes ranging from reproductive rights to the economy.
At the start of Tuesday night’s debate, Vice President Kamala Harris walked to former President Donald Trump’s podium, extended her hand and said, “Let’s have a good debate.”
That handshake, which would not have happened without Harris’ initiative, set the tone for the rest of the evening. Over the next hour and 40 minutes, it imploded as she egged it on. Her performance was great; Trump made her look fantastic.
“Donald Trump was fired by 81 million people,” Harris once said. “So let’s get that clear. And obviously he’s having a lot of trouble processing that.”
The entire debate is a huge victory for the Democratic presidential candidate. Now she needs to use the moment to her advantage. The footage of the debate and Trump’s meltdown can be used by her campaign team to energize the Democratic Party’s voting base through a strong social media strategy – something the campaign team has already implemented.
Trump lost the debate. But can Harris turn it into an election victory?
Trump botched his speech at the debate just as mail-in ballots were being sent out. Many states will begin early voting in October. It is unclear whether there will be another presidential debate by then.
No matter how well Harris did in the debate, it won’t matter if people aren’t motivated enough to vote for her.
Trump, on the other hand, already has a base of supporters who attend his rallies and campaign for him online. It doesn’t matter how he did at the debate, and MAGA supporters will find excuses for why he did so poorly. Even his more erratic claims will be absolved by the people who follow his every move.
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That’s why Harris needs to be strategic and use the debate to her advantage in the coming weeks.
Ultimately, it may pay more for her to focus on mobilizing her base and winning Democratic votes rather than worrying about the small percentage of undecided voters in this race.
Are undecided voters important?
Although experts and polls agree that Harris had an outstanding night, it is unclear whether her performance will convince undecided voters. According to a CNN poll immediately after the debate, 63 percent of registered voters said she had performed better.
This does not mean, however, that undecided voters have already made up their minds – or that there are enough such voters to matter.
A few days before the debate, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found that about 10 percent of voters were still undecided. Of those, only about 20 percent lived in key swing states where their decision could significantly affect the outcome of the election.
I’m not convinced that undecided voters are really torn between Harris and Trump. To be truly undecided, one would have to be able to forgive Trump for all his mistakes.
Furthermore, 10% is an incredibly small proportion of the total electorate, and it may not be worth shifting your entire campaign strategy to states outside of the swing states that could decide this election.
Harris now has only one task: rally the Democrats to defeat MAGA
Harris’s greatest achievement is her enthusiasm for voting. In March, Gallup found that only 55 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters were “more enthusiastic” than usual this election. In August, that number rose to 78 percent.
Among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, there has been a smaller increase in voter enthusiasm since March, from 59% to 64%.
Harris’ campaign may not be able to win over undecided voters, but it can use clips from Tuesday night’s debate in social media content and television ads – which in turn could engage young voters, women and voters of color.
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In particular, her strong response on abortion could be used to mobilize voters in the up to 10 states with abortion-related ballot initiatives. Harris’ campaign could accomplish this through targeted social media campaigns in these key states among likely swing voters and Democrats, as well as by generating organic viral content, as the campaign did in the days following the debate.
Since the debate, Harris’ campaign has made dozens of posts on various platforms, all with the potential for a new viral moment. A TikTok from the Kamala HQ account showcasing some of her best answers has 2 million likes on the platform. A post from Campaign X presenting the entire debate as Harris’ “latest ad” has nearly 120,000 likes.
So far, Harris has been able to use social media to her advantage in the campaign. There was Brat Summer and social media influencers were invited to the Democratic National Convention. Now there is a total Trump meltdown that the campaign can use in the next few weeks to galvanize the base and get people to vote.
MAGA, on the other hand, needs no encouragement. They consistently operate with an enthusiasm that the Democrats lacked until Harris’ nomination. Because that is the case, Harris must work to secure the votes of all Democrats within the coalition.
The best thing the Harris team can do now is maintain its strong social media presence and remind everyone what is at stake in this election.
Follow USA TODAY election columnist Sara Pequeño on X, formerly Twitter: @sara__pequeno
