The Tampa Bay Rays (71-75) and the Cleveland Guardian (84-62) open a 4-game series on Thursday. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s check out BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds for the Rays vs Guardians Opportunities and place your best bets with our expert MLB tips and predictions.

Season series: Rays lead 2-1

Tampa Bay won 2 of 3 games against Cleveland at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg from July 12-14. The two wins were both 2-0 victories over the Guardians, while Cleveland got its only win by a score of 4-2. The under conceded in all 3 meetings, and the point total was low in 4 consecutive meetings in this series.

The Rays were swept in three road games against the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this week, while the Under won in two of those games. Since August 22, Tampa Bay is just 7-13 in their last 20 games, while the Under has a record of 5-3-1 in their last 9 games.

The Guardians open the series with a 4 1/2 game lead over the second-place Kansas City Royals in the AL Central with 14 regular-season games remaining. Cleveland returns home with the best record in the AL at 43-25.

Cleveland swept the low-performing Chicago White Sox 16-7 earlier this week, while the under won 2-1. The over (7.5) won the series finale 6-4 on Wednesday, ending an 8-0-2 run by the under in the previous 10 games.

Expected starters for the Rays at the Guardians

RHP Ryan Pepiot against RHP Gavin Williams

Pepiot (8-6, 3.66 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a WHIP of 1.14, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 113 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H (1 solo HR), 2 BB, 4 K in the 7-1 road win against the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday
• 2024 Road Splits: 5-3, 3.23 ERA, 47 1/3 IP, 17 ER, 8 HR, 1.14 WHIP, .223 opposing batting average (OBA), 14 BB, 48 K in 9 starts
• Last 7 games: 4-1, 2.17 ERA, 37 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 12 BB, 35 K, 1.18 WHIP
• Career vs. Guardians: 1-0, 0.90 ERA, 10 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 2 appearances (1 start)

Williams (3-8, 5.25 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a WHIP of 1.37, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 60 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 0 K in 7-2 road loss to Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday
• 2024 Home Splits: 0-5, 7.54 ERA, 22 2/3 IP, 19 ER, 4 HR, 1.76 WHIP, .316 OBA, 10 BB, 30 K in 5 starts
• Last 7 games: 2-5, 6.68 ERA, 31 IP, 23 ER, 15 BB, 33 K, 1.39 WHIP
• Career vs. Rays: 0-0, 1.80 ERA, 10 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 12 K in 2 starts

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Rays at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; visit the USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds Hub for a complete list of MLB odds. Odds last updated at 6:41 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Rays +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Guardians -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
• Running Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-185) | Guardians -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -145 | U: +110)

Rays at Guardians: Tips and predictions

forecast

Rays 6, Guardian 3

Money line

The RADIANCE (+125) are a strong number as outsiders behind Pepiot in this series opener.

The Guardians (-150) just won three games against the White Sox, but even though Cleveland is playing at home, it’s a poor choice with Williams on the mound. He’s struggled at home this season with a 0-5 record and a 7.54 ERA, and in his last 7 starts in all venues he has a 2-5 record and a 6.68 ERA. Williams simply can’t be trusted, and it’s only because of injuries that he stays in the rotation.

Running Line/Against the Spread

The Rays +1.5 (-185) will cost you almost double your potential winnings, and that’s way too expensive if you need insurance. Bet straight on Tampa Bay on the moneyline for much better value.

HAPPEN.

Over/Under

OVER 7.5 (-145) is the move due to Williams’ poor pitching of late. His splits at home and his performance over his last 7 starts suggest Tampa Bay can win big all on its own.

While the under is 8-1-2 for the Guardians in their last 11 games, they can go high and feel confident doing so.

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