On Sunday, Taylor Fritz will face Jannik Sinner in the men’s final of the US Open (2 p.m. ET ABC; ESPN+). Sinner is ranked No. 1 in the world and won the Australian Open title earlier this year, while Fritz is playing in his first Grand Slam final. Can Fritz spring a surprise? Our experts give their opinion.
What can Fritz do to defeat Sinner?
Brad Gilbert: Fritz needs to serve really well and take some risks on his second serve, combining the serve with his forehand to control the rallies. In the neutral rallies he needs to be brave with his forehand.
D’Arcy Maine: It’s simple: he should play the best game of his life.
I’m kidding. But what impressed me most about Fritz’s five-set victory over Frances Tiafoe on Friday night was his ability to keep going no matter what. Even when the momentum and the crowd were on Tiafoe’s side, Fritz just kept fighting and did everything he could to create a chance for himself. He took control in the fourth set and showed the same mental strength we’ve seen all tournament against several top-class opponents like Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev.
But Sinner is number 1 in the world for a reason and is probably the best hard court player on tour right now. Fritz will have little room for error and he cannot afford to have any short lapses like he did against Tiafoe. Everything – his strong serve, his movements, his powerful shots – has to be as perfect as possible.
Bill Connelly: He’s coming back like never before. Fritz has won three of five all-time sets with Sinner, but they haven’t played since Indian Wells 2023, before Sinner’s breakthrough in 2024. And with each passing year, Sinner’s serve has become more and more effective. He entered the US Open having held 91.7% of his serves in 2024, tied with Matteo Berrettini for the best average in the ATP top 50.
Fritz started slowly in New York, but in the last four games he held serve 91.8% of the time. He has found his rhythm and needs to make the most of the break chances he gets. Either he needs to try to win tiebreakers against a player who almost never loses tiebreakers.
Ohm Youngmisuk: Fritz has to play the strongest serve of his entire tournament. After an emotional five-set match against Tiafoe, Fritz has to somehow end up being the fitter and stronger player, just like he was against Tiafoe. He has to chase as many balls as possible and avoid the Sinner forehand!
He can’t let Sinner get into his comfort zone. Sinner can throw his opponents off-kilter, and even throw the methodical Daniil Medvedev off-kilter. Fritz can’t lose his focus. But more than anything, Fritz needs to give the biggest crowd he’s ever had behind him reasons to get involved in the match. He needs to make the match feel like a two-on-one and get the crowd in the mood.
What can Sinner do to defeat Fritz?
Gilberto: He needs to demonstrate his first serve precision to dominate rallies, continue to dominate the middle of the court – which he has done all tournament – and make great strides in his second serve return.
Maine: Coming to New York, Sinner faced intense scrutiny after it was revealed he had tested positive for a banned substance twice in March. And despite the discomfort of being repeatedly asked about it, Sinner was the best player in the tournament. His powerful forehand is virtually unmatched. While the crowd will surely support Fritz, it’s hard to imagine that this would upset Sinner too much. He didn’t even seem that upset when Jack Draper vomited on the court several times (!) in the semifinals.
Sinner won his last meeting with Fritz – at Indian Wells in 2023 – and is now a much better and more in-form player. This time they meet on a faster court and Sinner has since won a major title at the Australian Open. He will need to play the same game that took him to the Cincinnati title and the New York final last month and use his experience from the Melbourne final to claim his first US Open title.
Connelly: Grind, as always. Fritz has tackled his weakest links so well and developed a game almost free of weaknesses. He’s good on short points, he has a great serve and he’s improved his return game dramatically. But he’s still not great on long points, and while Sinner can certainly hit the ball with the best, relying on Sufferball as a Plan B is usually a win for him too. And his superior Plan B is what has put him on the brink of his second Grand Slam title in 2024.
Youngmisuk: Sinner may be the best ball-striking player in the game and is very solid overall. If his left wrist is OK after his semifinal fall, Sinner will be incredibly difficult to beat. He showed he is not unstoppable when Medvedev took a set from him at 6-1 in the quarterfinals. Perhaps more than anything, Sinner will have to overcome two opponents – Fritz and a crowd at Arthur Ashe that will try to get Fritz to become the first American to win since Andy Roddick in 2003.
Who will win?
Maine: Sinner. It would be legendary if Fritz ended the American men’s 21-year drought of major titles at home, but it’s hard to imagine that the pressure won’t catch up with him. And against Sinner, he simply can’t afford any weaknesses or moments of vulnerability. The Italian wins in four sets.
Connelly: Sinner in four sets. He’s just so good at the moment. He hits with near-perfect power and depth, he can grind and suffer, and he’s composed enough to handle what will likely be a biased crowd. The wrist is an issue, and Fritz has been in brilliant form for much of the last two weeks, but it’s almost impossible to bet against the world No. 1.
Youngmisuk: If Sinner can block out the crowd and play his game, he should join Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Mats Wilander as the only men to win both the Australian Open and US Open in the same year since the Australian switched to hard courts. And that US Open win would give him one more Grand Slam title this year than Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic, and establish him as the best in the world this year.
The betting perspective
Pamela Maldonado: Taylor Fritz +5 games against Jannik Sinner
Fritz played excellent tennis, defeating top players such as Ruud and Zverev en route to the final, including a physically demanding five-set victory over fellow American Tiafoe in the semifinals.
Fritz’s game is based on his powerful serve and serve-plus-one combination with his flat forehand. His improved footwork is a standout feature, allowing him to quickly get into position after the serve to hit powerful follow-ups.
This improved mobility has allowed him to cover more court effectively, reach balls he would otherwise miss, and set up for shots more efficiently. It also allows him to extend rallies by finding angles and depth from the baseline and waiting for the right opportunity to hit winners, as shown in the decisive 31-stroke rally against Tiafoe late in the fourth set.
Fritz’s serve was particularly impressive. He led the ATP Tour last year with 78.8% of first serve wins. He maintained that consistency in his performance at the US Open, where he varied his serve with different speeds and placements, making it difficult for opponents to read him.
Despite coming off a grueling match against Tiafoe, Fritz appears to be in good physical shape. In contrast, Sinner suffered a wrist injury during his semi-final match against Jack Draper. These factors suggest that Fritz has the potential to compete at a high level against Sinner in his first major final. above 39 games is also a solid option.
