JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2024 season, the Jaguars’ “experts” – Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, JP Shadrick and Kainani Stevens – will analyze the Jaguars’ game the following day.

This week: The Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Brian Sexton, senior correspondent for jaguars.com

• The Jaguars will win if they: Hold Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill to 70 yards. The Dolphins lost seven games last season, including the postseason, and Hill averaged 70 yards in those games. He is the most explosive weapon in football and only a handful of teams were able to slow him down last season. The Jaguars need not only a great plan but also great execution in their first game under new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s scheme.
• The Dolphins win if: Their run defense is just as good on Sunday as it was last season. The Dolphins held opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry, which was among the NFL’s best marks in 2023. The Jaguars’ inability to convert third-and-short situations and keep the offense on the field last season was a major blow to the way they wanted to play offensively. If new center Mitch Morse and a healthy offensive line can’t run on Sunday when head coach Doug Pederson wants to run, that will be a significant problem.
• Sexton sees it this way: The Jaguars face one of the best road teams in the AFC to start the season. Miami has four straight winning seasons and was a playoff team in each of head coach Mike McDaniel’s first two seasons. Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke and Pederson put in a lot of work in the offseason to restructure the roster and restock the locker room with the right people with the right attitude. But this team didn’t win the big games last season. Until they do, it’s hard to predict whether they’ll do it on Sunday.

John Oehser, senior editor at jaguars.com

• The Jaguars win if: Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing as well as he looked in training camp and the 2024 preseason — and if the Jaguars’ defensive front seven controls the game. The idea is that the Jaguars’ strength on defense is the quartet of ends Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker, Arik Armstead and tackle DaVon Hamilton. That group needs to win to neutralize Miami’s speed on offense.
• The Dolphins win if: They win defensively from the outside. Miami’s offensive speed can overwhelm the secondaries. If quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has time to throw, the Dolphins’ wide receivers Hill and Jaylen Waddle cannot be covered – and the Dolphins could get too far ahead too soon.
• Oehser sees it this way: This is a tricky matchup in Week 1. If the Jaguars defense under Nielsen Tagovailoa can apply enough pressure to neutralize the Dolphins’ speed and force turnovers, the Jaguars can force mistakes and win. If they can’t do that, the Dolphins’ speed can make even the best secondary look very vulnerable.

Brent Martineau, Sports Director of Action Sports Jax

• The Jaguars will win if: They score over 27 points. The Jaguars offense needs to get off to a good start and I think ball control will be a big factor. The ability to run, stay on the field on third downs and finish in the red zone has to be part of the recipe for success in Miami.
• The Dolphins win if: They kept Tagovailoa clean for most of the afternoon. The Dolphins will look to get the ball out of his hands and get it to their playmakers, and the strength of the Jaguars defense is their frontcourt and pass rush. If Miami controls that part of the game, it could be difficult to slow down the Dolphins.
• Martineau sees it this way: Week one in the NFL is weird, and we all know it. I was convinced the Jaguars would win this game against Miami since the schedule was announced. I think there is a rush in Jacksonville’s locker room, and the tough training camp and continuity in their build should lead to a fast start – even on the road. The Jaguars win 30-24.