As I have in the past, below are the keys and my prediction for how the Pittsburgh Steelers will win (or lose) tonight’s game. Three things need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the ball in their Week 1 season opener against the Atlanta Falcons, and vice versa.
My prediction for the Steelers is below.
The Steelers will win if …
1. Pittsburgh’s first seven wins
The Falcons want to run the ball with their top-ten pick, Bijan Robinson, in his second season. They don’t want to put the game solely in the hands of Kirk Cousins, who is facing the Steelers’ pass rush in his first game back since tearing his Achilles tendon.
Pittsburgh’s front seven, their defensive line and their linebackers, are the strength of the entire team, so they need to play like it. If they can win the line of scrimmage and keep Atlanta one-dimensional and out of sync, Cousins will have a tough day ahead. Their passing game will be more open and powerful than last year, but it won’t be enough to carry Atlanta against this defense.
2. George Pickens is a big man on campus
I love the big man matchups at receiver and cornerback in this game. For the Steelers defense, it’s CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Drake London. But on offense, the standout is WR George Pickens versus CB AJ Terrell. Both are big and strong and excellent at what they do. Terrell is one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the league.
Pickens is the Steelers’ clear No. 1 and needs to make big plays in the passing game. That can be vertical gains and catching, his specialty, but also YAC and gains at all levels of the field. Assuming Justin Fields starts, he will look his way often. The two had a strong connection in training camp when Russell Wilson was sidelined with his first calf injury.
3. It’s a homecoming by Justin Fields
From the Atlanta area, it’s hopefully a homecoming for Justin Fields. A big test early on when the team’s intention was to start Fields on the bench and use him situationally. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Fields is a big threat with his legs and Pittsburgh should rely on that in this game with read options, more RPOs and planned QB runs.
He has made progress as a passer in training camp, but he still needs to show more in the stadium. He must not allow the experienced safety duo of Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons to lure him into an ugly interception. Fields must take care of the ball and not allow more passes to be intercepted at the line of scrimmage.
He can do all of those things, and if he does, there’s a chance he won’t give up his starting spot. What an opportunity to shine.
The Steelers will lose if …
1. Sloppy return of the Steelers
I always worry about ugly football early in the year, especially for a Pittsburgh team that has new, young, and mobile offensive players in week one. It starts with the snap. In the preseason, there were too many bad turnovers and too many miscommunications. That’s forgivable in August, not September.
Additionally, the tackles must not be penalized for illegal formation, which the NFL is tough on. The defense must communicate well and not mess up assignments, and there must be no special teams mishaps that cost the team yards and points. Week 1 is more about getting the job done than outsmarting or outplaying the opponent. Whoever makes the fewest mistakes wins the opening game.
2. Keeanu Benton stays stuck on the bench
Benton has looked like a star in the preseason and is entering his second year as a starter. He will play. But the Falcons will have an 11-person team (three receivers) that new OC Zac Robinson, formerly of the LA Rams, brings. That means Pittsburgh will play a lot in its 2-4-5 nickel. Normally that means Cam Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi will soak up a lot of those snaps, but the Steelers will have to be careful about rotating Benton.
I’m not too worried about Benton being forgotten, but there were times last year when he played way too little and didn’t get enough action in the sub packages. I want to check the box and make sure he gets about a third of the nickel snaps this season.
3. O-Line can’t handle the Falcons’ creative rush looks
Pittsburgh has two offensive linemen making their first career starts, along with Broderick Jones in his second season. Going up against a new defense, the team doesn’t have much experience. What we have Atlanta follows the example of most of the league with creative and stressful third down attacks. Dual three-techs to test the guard’s edges and force tackles to win 1-on-1s. Or 3×1 formations with three rushers on one side, running plays and twists. This O-line has to be ready.
forecast
Steelers: 23
Falcons: 17
