In the first week of the college football season, a few hype trains have completely derailed.

Florida State must pick up the pieces after its second consecutive loss as a double-digit favorite, while Virginia Tech suffered a loss to Vanderbilt.

Texas A&M and LSU also suffered losses, albeit against strong opponents, while Oregon and Michigan won late against Idaho and Fresno State, respectively.

The chaos looks set to continue on Saturday, and we’ve picked an ugly underdog that not only poses a major threat, but could also scare a Power Four team with a ton of hype behind it.

Prediction for Sam Houston State vs. UCF

Sometimes a team’s WL record doesn’t tell the whole story.

This was the case last year at Sam Houston State.

The Bearkats made the jump from FCS to FBS in 2023 and the transition was, as expected, bumpy.

Sam Houston State started the season 0-8, but four of those losses were by one point and two of them came in regulation time.

The Bearkats finished the season strong, going 3-1 in their final four games and earning victories over Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech.

Secretly, things were pointing in the right direction for Sam Houston State.

However, her performance in Week 1 was anything but quiet.

The Bearkats made a statement in their opening game by defeating Rice as a double-digit underdog by a final score of 34-14.

This week it won’t be so easy against UCF, as many bettors see a team as an underdog to make the Big 12 title game.

The Golden Knights were hardly tested in Week 1 against New Hampshire and Gus Malzahn will be perfectly satisfied with the 57-3 victory.

Quarterback KJ Jefferson was brought in from Arkansas to run Malzahn’s offense, and he earned a lot of praise in the offseason when the former Auburn coach compared Jefferson to Cam Newton.

However, this could be a kind of test for the former Razorback.

The Bearkats improved their defensive line – which was average last year – in the transfer portal, which was evident in Week 1 when they held Rice to less than 50 yards of ground clearance.

They won’t come close to repeating that against Jefferson and star running back RJ Harvey, but it was an encouraging performance that they can build on heading to the Bounce House.

Another advantage for the Bearkats is that this will be Jefferson’s second game in a new system.

Jefferson has all the tools to lead this UCF team to greatness, but it might take some time.

Sam Houston State’s offense struggled to get going last year, but new quarterback Hunter Watson made a seamless transition from JUCO to FBS in Week 1.

Watson, who led Iowa Western to the 2023 national title, completed 16 of 27 passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns without a single turnover that would have required a turnover.

He was able to rely on an experienced receiver team and was backed up by an excellent running game, where he managed 178 yards on 46 carries. That reliance on the running attack will be huge in this situation because when you’re going to go with a big underdog, you want to run the clock.

Betting on college football?

Sam Houston State’s first game — and the second half of last year — simply gave too much to ignore as 21.5-point underdogs against a team that will be under tremendous pressure to get into a rhythm before the start of conference play against TCU on Sept. 14.

Bet on the Bearkats to play respectably and don’t be afraid to go for it in the first half as they could surprise the Knights here.

The Bet: Sam Houston State +21.5 (-110, Caesars)