Manny Diaz began his coaching career at Duke last week with a solid performance against FCS Elon in a 26-3 victory, but it’s questionable whether he can repeat that performance against Northwestern, which continues to trend upward under David Braun.

Duke enters Friday’s primetime game as a 2.5-point underdog against a Northwestern team attempting something it hasn’t done since 2015: start 2-0 and against the spread.

Read on to find out my odds, predictions and tips for Duke vs. Northwestern.

Duke vs. Northwestern odds

Prediction for Duke vs. Northwestern

(9:00 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)

After years of mediocrity in the Big Ten under Pat Fitzgerald, the Wildcats appeared rejuvenated under Braun.

Last season, the former Winona State defensive player coached Northwestern’s previously underperforming defense.

The Wildcats allowed just 22 points per game and won their last five games, holding four opponents under 15 points.

They got a little lucky, posting a +13 turnover differential while going 5-2 in one-score games.

But they also excelled at keeping everything in front of them, ranking sixth nationally in explosive plays allowed (44, 22nd).

If you were expecting a decline, it didn’t happen in week 1.

Miami (OH) has a top-notch MAC offense and Brett Gabbert is arguably the best quarterback in the Group of Five.

Still, Northwestern held the RedHawks to a 39% success rate (17th percentile) and -0.19 EPA per play (17th percentile) while making just two field goals. Gabbert was sacked three times and threw two interceptions.

That makes sense. Northwestern returned eight starters from last year’s tough squad, so the Wildcats have enough experience to overcome a far less talented team.

While I ultimately expect the Wildcats to decline against the more talented Power Four offenses, I don’t think Duke meets that criteria.

Diaz was a good signing for Duke, but the Blue Devils are working on a complete rebuild in Year 0. They have a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and quarterback (Maalik Murphy).

Their offensive line is the least experienced in the ACC with just 37 career games, which doesn’t bode well for the Wildcat defensive line, which returned seven of its top eight rotation players from last year.

The Blue Devils only returned five defensive starters from 2023 and lost their top five defensive players, which will be a disadvantage against a relatively experienced Northwestern offensive line.

The Wildcats are likely to have the upper hand on Friday.

Duke ranks 108th nationally in experience and is second to last in the ACC. One could argue that the Blue Devils are the worst team in the ACC.

Betting on college football?

Duke vs. Northwestern tip

While they played well against Elon, you can’t take too much from a Week 1 game against an FCS opponent. Conversely, I’m pleased with Northwestern’s defense after their Week 1 performance against the defending MAC champions, and I think the Wildcats can repeat that.

I’m not too confident about Northwestern’s mediocre offense, and I’m not a huge fan of QB1 Mike Wright. But the Wildcats did just enough last week against an overexperienced Miami (OH) defense. I expect the same against a far less experienced (though more talented) stopping unit.

Action Network’s PRO model projects the Wildcats as seven-point favorites in this game, so I’m pretty comfortable taking them by less than a field goal based on the spread.

Choose: Northwestern -2.5 (-110, Caesars)