Jason McIntyre

Co-host of THE HERD and sports betting analyst at FOX

NFL Week 1 is here, folks. It really is the best time of the year for fans and bettors.

With so much live action to finally spend our money on, you may be overwhelmed when deciding how much to bet.

That’s where I come in.

Check out my best picks for Week 1 of the NFL, along with a 6-point teaser I like.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8

Titans @ Bears (1pm, FOX and FOX Sports App)

As much as I like the Bears’ prospects this season, I can’t get into this one on a rookie quarterback in his first start. I’m not a trend bettor, but it’s somewhat interesting that the No. 1 drafted quarterbacks are 0-14-1 in their first start since 2002.

Yes, being drafted first means you’re going to a terrible team, and the Bears won seven games last year and took Caleb Williams with Carolina’s pick. Still, we’ve never seen a pick this heavily favored in his first career start this century! This summer, he was -4.5, but influential money has pushed him down to -3.5 as the public continues to criticize the Bears.

The smartest move is probably to go for points. The Titans’ new-look offense will be led by Brian Callahan, who comes from Cincinnati, where the Bengals have relied heavily on three wide receivers. I would expect each quarterback to throw 25 to 30 times, and we should see that number go beyond the total.

TIP: Over 44 points from both teams together

Carmen Vitali explains what makes the Bears’ rookie QB stand out

Vikings @ Giants (1pm, FOX and FOX Sports App)

This started with a pick ’em and the money was placed on the Vikings, with the line going as far as Minnesota -2.

The Giants enter the game with a lot of questions about their offensive line, quarterback and skill position players – especially with Saquon Barkley missing. Their secondary is one of the worst in the league despite the addition of Stephon Gilmore. Brian Daboll’s only advantage is his 6-0 record against defenses under Brian Flores. And Daboll has taken over the play-calling duties, probably because he knows jobs are on the line.

The Vikings’ offensive line is great, and it has to be because the Giants’ pass rush will be excellent. And Dexter Lawrence has given Minnesota center Garrett Bradbury problems in the past. This feels like an ugly game with two average (or below average) quarterbacks.

Despite two offensive masterminds calling the plays, there will likely be few points.

TIP: Vikings (-122) Moneyline wins directly

Panther @ Saints (1pm, FOX and FOX Sports App)

I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again: I’m not a trend forecaster.

But this trend is hard to ignore: For the past decade or more, division underdogs in Week 1 have been fantastic bets.

The Panthers had a much better offseason than the Saints, improving their WR and offensive line. The NFL’s worst offense also has a new leader in head coach Dave Canales, who comes from Tampa where he saved Baker Mayfield’s career. The last seven meetings between these two have come in under the total, and here’s another game with two subpar QBs. So, sure, I’m taking more than a field goal here.

TIP: Panthers (+4) lose with less than 4 points or win directly

Who will win the AFC East: Buffalo Bills or New York Jets?

Jaguars @ Dolphins (1 p.m., CBS)

The only thing that can slow down this fireworks display is Mother Nature. And various weather reports are predicting rain and wind.

But isn’t that the case every weekend in Florida?

Both teams have new defensive coordinators. Both teams have weak secondaries, and Jalen Ramsey may not play for the Dolphins. Even though everyone is against Jacksonville, the Jaguars had an 8-3 record last year with wins over the Bills and Texans before a late-season slump derailed their playoff chances.

Often not talked about is that Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been healthy. Expect a high-powered offense from Jacksonville this year. That feels like 31-28 or something in that area.

TIP: Over 49 points from both teams together

Broncos @ The Seahawks (4:05 p.m., CBS)

Seattle was my first bet in August when the Broncos named Bo Nix their starter.

In this game, a rookie walks into Lumen Field not knowing what to expect against a Seattle defense with a new head coach.

Yes No.

Last year, Mike Macdonald was the DC in Baltimore and faced a rookie, CJ Stroud, in Week 1. The Texans couldn’t move the ball. The same could happen to Nix, because Macdonald does a great job of mixing blitzes and looks on the backend. The value was -5 and professional money pushed it up to -6.

TIP: Seahawks (-6) win by more than 6 points

Bet on a total of 5.5 wins for the Broncos this season

6-point teaser

Teasers have been extremely profitable in this space over the last year as we went through key numbers 3 and 7, so let’s dive into the lines I’m teasing in Week 1.

Packer +2 to +8
Bengals -8.5 to -2.5
Bills from -6.5 to -.5

I’m confident the Packers will score more than one touchdown in Brazil, as the Eagles secondary will have at least three new starters, including one or two rookies at cornerback. The Packers defense, meanwhile, has a new coordinator, and it could be a few weeks before the scheme change is perfected. The Over is also worth a look.

The Bengals face the worst team in the league, but I can only predict that with the uncertainty of whether Ja’Marr Chase plays. The Patriots want a low-scoring game since they don’t have an offense that can keep up with a backup QB and the worst skill position players in the league.

The Bills are difficult because the defense will have several new faces at LB and in the secondary and could be picked apart by Kyler Murray. Buffalo’s offense will be tough and may not be as vertical and explosive as in years past.

Jason McIntyre is a betting analyst for FOX Sports and also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every broadcast on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. In 2018 and 2019, he had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners.” Before joining FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. Follow him @Subscribe.

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